The probability of Russia’s victory in the war against Ukraine is estimated at only two points out of a possible seven.
US military experts have developed the MCOSM computer program, which can predict the outcome of a battle. This was reported by UNIAN on Monday, July 25, citing Freedom.
It is noted that experts have loaded into the program more than a hundred results of famous world battles that have taken place in the world for 150-200 years. Out of 10 cases, 7 match the real result.
To run the MCOSM forecast, users need to check 30 values. They cover things like each fighter’s skill level, firepower, mobility, logistics, intelligence, decision making, and the ability to streamline and synchronize operations.
One such program predicted that the Russian army would not capture Kyiv at the start of the war.
The program rated the probability of Russia’s victory in the war against Ukraine at only two points out of a possible seven.
There is also a browser similar to this program – a simulator of air battles of the American defense company Man Tech. In this program, the same script can be run multiple times with different results.
This allows you to establish, for example, what maneuvers, weather, altitude, or other variables will increase the chance of a fighter avoiding the Russian S-400 air defense systems. But one fact the program did not take into account: “The strong will of the Ukrainians has a greater impact on the course of the war than the group of military experts from the 290 forecasters expected.”
The MCOSM representative was asked to say how the second phase of the war in Ukraine will end. He contributed information, including the lack of weapons in Ukraine and Russia’s efficient command and control and information processing capabilities. The result is 5 points out of 7 for victory for each side of the conflict. In other words, a dead end.
However, the simulations should be treated with caution, said Andrew Elachinsky, an employee of the naval think tank.
According to him, assigning numerical ratings to human psychology and military knowledge is subjective at best and implausible at worst.
Remember that a few days before, Forbes wrote that the outcome of the war would be decided in two months.
The war in Ukraine could last – ISW
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Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.