World GDP’s global growth slowed from 3.3% to 2024 to 2.8% to 2025 and 3% to 2026.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published an updated World Economic Forecast (WEO), according to which global growth in the GDP world was slow from 3.3% to 2024 to 2.8% to 2025 and 3% to 2026.
“According to the main forecast, which includes information on April 4, global growth will decrease by 2.8% to 2025 and 3% in 2026 -compared to 3.3% in the same year in the WEO of January 2025, which corresponds to the combined evaluation of forecasting for 0.8 percent points and significantly lower than the average historical indicator (200-2019) at the level level 3.7%” Publication.
It is noted that the situation has changed because governments around the world are changing the priorities of their policy. In particular, from the moment of 2025 January Weo, a number of new steps in the United States tariff and countermeasures on the part of their trading partners were announced and introduced.
“This led to the introduction of nearly universal United States tariffs on April 2 and bring effective tariff rates to a level that had not occurred in the last century,” the IMF said and added that it itself was a serious negative shock for the growth.
The lack of sanity in which these steps also open up negatively affect economic activity and prospects and, at the same time, makes it more complex than ever, the development of assumptions that can be the basis for the internal agreed and timely set of forecasts, the funds mentioned.
Given the complexity and differences of the current moment, in this report, rather than the usual main forecast, a “reference forecast” was shown, based on information available on April 4, 2025 (including tariffs from April 2 and the first reactions). This is supplemented by a number of global growth forecasts, especially in various assumptions about trading policy.
In the main forecasting, growth in countries with a developed economy was predicted at 1.4% in 2025. It is expected that growth in the United States is slow to 1.8%, which is 0.9 percentage. Below the forecast published in the WEO 2025 for January 2025, due to greater political uncertainty, trading intensification and weak impulse of demand, while eurozone growth at a level of 0.8%is expected to slow down 0.2 percent points.
In countries with emerging markets and in developing countries, growth slows down to 3.7% by 2025 and up to 3.9% in 2026 with a significant decrease of forecasts for countries that have suffered most recent trading steps such as China.
In connection with Ukraine, GDP growth forecasts for this year are maintained at 2%, the next – 4.5%.
It is hoped that the global major inflation will decrease slower than expected in January, and up to 4.3% to 2025 and 3.6% in 2026 with noticeable forecast increases for countries with economies and a slight forecast decline for countries with emerging markets and developing countries in 2025.
For Ukraine, this year’s average annual inflation was predicted at 12.6%, as follows – 7.7% compared to 6.5% last year.
“Strengthening negative risks leads to forecasts. Increasing trade war, along with greater uncertainty about trading policy, can reduce growth rates in short and long -term periods, while depleting buffer reserves weakens stability in future shocks,” the IMF emphasized.
It has been noted that disagreements and a rapid change in political positions or the destruction of moods may cause further re -evaluation of property -owners to a occurrence after the announcement of April 2 in the introduction of large US large tariffs to the United States, as well as a pointed adjustment of foreign exchange rates and capital flows, especially in debt problems.
In his opinion, it could lead to greater financial unevenness, including damage to the international foreign exchange system.
According to the forecast, demographic shifts and reduction of foreign labor can prevent the potential growth and threat of fiscal stability. The prolonged consequences of the recent crisis in matters of life combined with tired political sweat and ghost medium -TERM growth of prospects can boost social disturbance.
“Maintenance presented by many large countries with emerging markets can be evaluated for strength, as the delivery of high levels of debt becomes a more difficult task with bad global financial conditions. An increasingly limited international help for development can increase pressure in low -level countries, which pushes them even more obligations of the fiscal, which will not change.
The IMF believes that the additional path requires some clarity and coordination.
“Countries must work in creating a stable and predictable trade environment, contributing to debts that re -adjust and solve general problems. At the same time, they should solve the problems of domestic policy and imbalance structures, thus providing internal economic stability,” the IMF said.
This will help to balance compromises between growth and inflation, restore buffers and improve prospects medium -TERM growth, as well as reduce global imbalance. The priority for central banks remains a great setting up a financial policy to fulfill their mandates and ensure price and financial stability and financial conditions of more complex trade and financial relationships.
Remember that the Ukraine state budget received nearly $ 400 million for the next tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Shmygal discussed further cooperation with the IMF delegation
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Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.