At the request of Politico, scientists, analysts and forecasters tried to imagine the most unpredictable and unlikely scenarios that the whole world can expect in 2025.
“Black swans” are incredible, world-changing events. Politico has collected 15 such events that can change life in 2025. As the publication writes, these events may not happen, but they should not be discarded immediately. Here are the most interesting forecasts.
Separatism in the USA
Halfway through the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump agreed to a proposal by activists to split 15 counties in eastern Oregon and join them in the state of Idaho – a demand within the Greater Idaho movement of conservatives who were not satisfied with the liberal policies of the state leadership. Trump’s decision leads to the rise of other separatist movements. Texas and California demand secession from the United States. Rallies were held in various states, police used rubber bullets to stop demonstrators, and some were killed.
New infectious outbreak
This scenario describes an infectious disease outbreak “in a small, poorly vaccinated rural community.” The symptoms of the disease, as Politico wrote, are similar to the flu, but the test results do not include it and covid. Meanwhile, the disease is spreading, local authorities are reluctant to introduce countermeasures, and social networks are full of misinformation. It turns out there is an experimental vaccine, but it needs emergency use approval, and health officials can’t agree. The outbreak has reached epidemic proportions in the US, other countries are banning Americans from entering, the disease is “killing thousands of people and sending the economy back into a downward spiral” like Covid.
Cdeal between Putin and Trump
A Politico scenario suggests that Vladimir Putin could offer Donald Trump a secret deal that would halt Tehran’s nuclear weapons development. As part of the deal, Putin will persuade Iran to agree to a five-year development freeze, and Trump will prevent Israel from attacking Iran by giving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a promise from Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to normalize relations. on the condition that Jerusalem refrain from attack. However, at the same time, Trump would not know, as Politico writes, that Putin would have to agree to send advanced air defense systems to Iran for a year in the event of an attack on Israel.
Fall of Lukashenko
“The people of Belarus can gain independence” by taking advantage of the fact that Vladimir Putin cannot help Alexander Lukashenko, writes Politico. Putin’s position will be weakened if Ukraine joins NATO or enters into an agreement with the United States on security guarantees. Politico still does not rule out the possibility that Russia will lose on the battlefield.
Unexpected alliances
A technological leap and significant growth in new economic sectors will lead to a global review of relations between countries, writes Politico. This could include restructuring US relations with Europe and the Middle East. Productivity increases in India and Africa will change the global economic and political landscape. In addition, Politico experts admit a fundamental change in the socio-political structure of the Middle East if Trump can arrange a cessation of hostilities in regions such as the Gaza Strip, Syria and South Lebanon, and mediate a movement towards peace and stability.
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.