The situation in Syria is changing rapidly, and now it is very difficult to predict the future of the country.
For decades, Syria has been ruled by the Assad clan. After his fall, the country found itself at a crossroads. The leader of the coalition of factions that defeated Assad, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, promises to unite the country, but now it is unclear whether he will be able to achieve this goal.
Unity of the country
This is the most favorable of scenarios: HTS lets other political forces lead the country responsibly with it, Syria takes the path of national reconciliation and, unlike other countries in the region, avoids a new stage of mutual revenge, murders, robberies and a new war.
Al-Julani still called on Syrian factions for unity and mutual respect. But there are many groups, and they pursue different goals.
Armed tribal groups in southern Syria have never recognized the authority of the Assad clan and are unlikely to submit to the new government in Damascus. In the south, remnants of the so-called Islamic State are still active and threatening.
Kurdish forces, with the support of the United States, control territories in the northeast of the country. These forces are fighting Turkish-backed Syrian factions, and fighting there has flared up again in recent days.
In addition, during the 13 years of war, many opposition organizations and alliances have formed outside of Syria. It is unclear whether these figures and organizations will return to Syria and engage in some sort of political transition process.
The Syrian-Swiss political scientist, professor at the University of Lausanne Joseph Daher, like other experts, believes at the moment that it is unlikely that the Syrian factions will peacefully and harmoniously begin to rule the country, which divides and decentralized power after free elections.
New dictatorship
Many fear that HTS, like the Assad regime, will try to concentrate power in its hands through authoritarian methods. The group already controls Idlib, a province in northwestern Syria that remained under rebel control until the end and is home to around four million people, including those who fled from other provinces. of the country. The government of national security manages the civil administration of Idlib, and in parallel there is a religious council there, guided by Sharia law.
In Idlib, Al-Julani tried to show that HTS can be an effective government, ensuring the stability and functioning of public services.
However, this group gained power in Idlib by pushing rivals from other armed formations to the margins and suppressing dissent.
Shortly before the offensive began on November 27, protests erupted in Idlib against the authoritarian methods of HTS. Both Islamic fundamentalists and civil activists protested.
civil war
At worst, Syria will once again descend into bloody chaos, as happened in several other countries after the Arab Spring. When the leaders of Libya and Iraq, Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein, were ousted, it appeared that there were no ready replacements for them. The foreign interventions that allowed them to be ousted had disastrous consequences. The power vacuum was filled by a wave of robberies, murders, lawlessness and civil war.
In Syria, a power struggle between various armed groups could lead to major new bloodshed and further devastate not only Syria itself, but the entire region.
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.