Attack on Zaporozhye and Dnieper. New war scenarios

Russia is preparing to attack the city of Zaporozhye, The Economist reports, citing sources in Ukrainian intelligence.

Russia is preparing to attack Zaporozhye and plans to advance into the southeastern part of the Dnepropetrovsk region, military analysts and Western journalists report. The war has not reached a stalemate, and the front line in Ukraine (especially in the Donetsk region) is becoming increasingly volatile, as Russian troops advance faster in the fall of 2024 than in all of 2023, the Institute for the Study of War states. .

What operations can Russia prepare?

Great attack on Zaporozhye

“Ukrainian intelligence believes that Russia is preparing to attack the city of Zaporozhye, 30 km from the front. When exactly this will happen, no one knows,” said The Economist.

For such an attack, Russia could use up to 130 thousand soldiers. Colonel Alexey Khilchenko, commander of the 3rd operational brigade NGU Spartan, which was recently deployed in Zaporozhye, said that Russia is busy elsewhere. According to him, the Russians planned to send 20-30 thousand troops for the initial attack, but half of them were transferred to the Kursk region of Russia.

A military man with the call sign Lemberg, a battalion commander of the 118th brigade serving in the southwestern defensive positions of the Zaporozhye region, agreed that the Russians were planning an attack.

“They are not yet ready to strike, but when they are, the first blow will be the hardest,” he said.

Attack in the Kursk region

Russia has sent tens of thousands of soldiers to the Kursk region, attacking day and night, the WSJ wrote. Despite heavy losses, according to Western press reports, the Russian army recaptured almost half of the territory controlled by Ukrainian forces in August. According to analysts, Russia may be planning a larger offensive in the Kursk region.

“However, some in Kyiv worry that Trump’s desire to negotiate will play into the hands of the Russians,” the WSJ wrote, adding that Ukrainian officials believe the Russian Federation is trying to return the Kursk region before Trump takes office.

If Kyiv manages to keep parts of the territory in the Kursk region, it could give Ukraine an important bargaining chip in any peace negotiations, the article emphasizes.

The publication also quoted a Ukrainian military man fighting in the Kursk region: “It’s the best forces of Ukraine against the best forces of Russia.” According to him, the Russian counterattack began about six weeks ago and the enemy initially advanced in rows of armored vehicles.

But after the loss of equipment, the Russians changed their strategy – they began to send infantry on foot and in small groups. According to the interlocutor of the publication, the Russian Federation has advantages in manpower and the number of drones, while the enemy is suffering huge losses.

The WSJ also cited Vienna-based military analyst Franz-Stefan Gadi, who believes the Russians are likely trying to wear down the Ukrainians before a larger offensive to retake the Kursk region. According to him, Putin is not ready for negotiations because he believes that he is “winning the war.” However, this could change if the US increases military support for Ukraine, thereby forcing Moscow to the negotiating table.

The Ukrainian strategy in the Kursk region, according to Gadi, is to hold this territory “as a bargaining chip.”

In turn, Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the Kursk region believe that if they can stay there until winter, it will be difficult to dislodge them until spring.

Donbass and Dnieper

The institute’s analysts suggest that the Kremlin’s stated goal of capturing the entire Donetsk region is likely to also include ground operations in the southern and eastern parts of the Dnepropetrovsk region to cut off logistics lines supporting the Defense Force positions in the Donetsk region and capture these Ukrainian positions. ISW recalls that on November 24, the Russian front line near Novodarovka was 8 km from the administrative border of the Dnepropetrovsk region. “Such a Russian offensive, if successful, could capture Ukrainian forces from areas southwest of Pokrovsk, west of Kurakhovo, and west and northeast of Velikaya Novoselka,” said a report by the Institute for the Study of War. However, ISW experts said, in order to do this, the Russians must first “successfully encircle or bypass Velikaya Novoselka to block the T0518 Bagatyr-Velikaya Novoselka highway – an important task that Russian forces may not be able to complete. “

In general, Russia’s potential attempts to ensure the Kremlin’s goal of capturing the entire Donetsk region by occupying at least part of the Dnepropetrovsk region are consistent with Moscow’s desire for the complete surrender of Ukraine, the destruction of its independence and territorial sovereignty of Ukraine, ISW states. Analysts recalled the map of the hypothetical division of Ukraine into three zones, recently published by the Ukrainian media. “The Russian military can use the limited advance in the Dnepropetrovsk region to create conditions for future operations for the military occupation of the Dnepropetrovsk region and other regions of eastern and central Ukraine for a long time,” believes the ISW.