The Kremlin likely decided to declare a counterterrorism operation rather than martial law to downplay the scale of the invasion of Kursk and prevent panic or a backlash at home, the Institute for the Study of War writes. Russian authorities have also shown reluctance to take more radical measures in response to the situation.
The Russian opposition publication Verstka reported that a source close to the Defense Committee of the Federation Council of Russia said that the administration of the Russian president recommended that Russian deputies and senators not comment on the events in the Kursk region “for special orders” or discuss them briefly and refer to official statements.
Russian military bloggers suggested that the Kremlin formally declare war on Ukraine and criticized the Russian Presidential Administration for not declaring martial law instead of an anti-terrorist operation.
Declaring martial law would, in particular, allow the Russian authorities to take more radical measures, such as banning rallies and demonstrations, imposing a curfew, and organizing the production of defense products for the military. Putin has refrained from formally declaring a state of war, has repeatedly demonstrated his reluctance to fully transfer Russian society to a war footing, and has refused to declare a general mobilization in order to prevent internal discontent that could threaten the stability of the Putin regime.
Putin likely appointed Bortnikov to head the counterterrorism operation because Bortnikov had previously proven himself to be an effective manager during crises that threatened Russia’s internal stability and the Kremlin regime.
ISW analysts believe that the complex system of managing the FSB anti-terrorist operation under Bortnikov’s leadership could reduce the effectiveness of the response to the Ukrainian operation.
Military analysts also noted that Russian forces are more adequately defending themselves in the Kursk region with the arrival of additional conscripts and combat-ready personnel from frontline areas in Ukraine.
Source: Racurs
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