HomeWorldCounteroffensive failure 2023. Analysis...

Counteroffensive failure 2023. Analysis from Britain

Image: Getty Images

In the summer of 2023, according to the plan of the Ukrainian command, 12 armored and mechanized brigades will make a breakthrough in an area 30 km wide.

The authoritative British security think tank RUSI published a 48-page report Preliminary lessons from Ukrainian offensive operations in 2022-23, in which it named the main reasons for the unsuccessful counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2023. Analysts also expressed doubts about a new offensive in the near future. The authors of the report are Jack Watling, Alexander Danilyuk and Nick Reynolds.

Armed Forces Plan

The authors called the initial plan reasonable: 12 Ukrainian armored and mechanized brigades should make a breakthrough in an area 30 km wide, isolate Tokmak for seven days, and then move south in Melitopol. At this rate, Russia will not have time to raise reserves, and the advancing Ukrainian troops will only have to overcome the resistance of six Russian regiments on the defensive.

Similar miscalculation

But the implementation of this plan was prevented by mistakes made6, according to the authors of the report, both by Ukraine’s allies and by the Ukrainian command itself.

In particular, RUSI said that the Western allies did not provide Ukraine with enough equipment and weapons, unlike Russia, they did not have time to transfer the industry to military flights, so they did not have enough weapons , and those given are too late. This led to the fact that the Ukrainian army had little time to master the new equipment.

Miscalculations of the Ukrainian command

The Russian command clearly knows where the direction of the main attack is, analysts say. The authors see this as an operational security failure on the part of both Ukraine and its allies.

In addition, the Ukrainian command decided to send less trained units to the breakthrough, while the more experienced ones should hold the front. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are dispersing their forces in different directions.

But the most serious mistake of the Ukrainian command, according to analysts, is that it hopes that the defending Russian troops will break and flee, as happened near Kharkov in 2022. When this does not happen, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have no -hope to lose momentum.

However, the authors did not touch on discussed factors such as the density of Russian mines and the capabilities of attack drones capable of hitting important armored vehicles with great accuracy.

New counter-offensive

Watling, Danylyuk and Reynolds believe that the continuation of Ukrainian offensive actions is impossible in the foreseeable future.

However, Ukraine can focus on causing maximum damage to the Russian army, as well as increasing attacks on Russian infrastructure that generate income for the Russian budget.

Western and American officials estimate that Ukrainian forces will remain on the defensive for the next six months and won’t be able to launch a large-scale counteroffensive until 2025.

However, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are already trying to seize the tactical initiative in some sectors of the front and will be able to conduct limited counter-offensive operations, even while on the defensive, if the availability of Western assistance allows.

Ukrainian troops are likely to increase the size and frequency of counterattacks in the coming months as Western aid comes to the fore and Ukraine continues to build reserves and new brigades, analysts said. at the Institute for the Study of War.

Source: korrespondent

- A word from our sponsors -

Most Popular

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

More from Author

- A word from our sponsors -

Read Now

The monastery fell into RSZO in the Sumi region, wounded and cutting (photo)

The Russian army struck new strokes in the Sumi region. .in_text_content_22 {width: 300px; Height: 600px; } @Media (min-width: 600px) {.in_text_content_22 {width: 580px; Height: 400px; }} .Adsbygoogle {Touch-Action: Manipulation; } On Sunday, July 13, the invaders attacked the border areas. From the...

The DPRK introduced the Russian Federation of the Russian Federation of 12 million shells of the 152nd caliber-yonhapa

North Korea provided the Russian Federation with more than 12 million shells of the 152nd caliber. .in_text_content_22 {width: 300px; Height: 600px; } @Media (min-width: 600px) {.in_text_content_22 {width: 580px; Height: 400px; }} .Adsbygoogle {Touch-Action: Manipulation; } The country of the aggressor received...

Colonel SBU in Kyiv killed a foreign pole

Citizens of another country - a man and a woman who were involved in the murder in the area of Golosivsky Kyiv Colonel Ivan Voronich, which occurred on July 10. .in_text_content_22 {width: 300px; Height: 600px; } @Media (min-width: 600px) {.in_text_content_22 {width: 580px; Height: 400px;...

Skolko drones, cabbage cubs and missiles made a toury for Nelly, riveted Zelenski (video)

Russian invaders used more than 1.8 thousand drones per week, more than 1.2 thousand controlled aircraft and 83 missiles of various types. .in_text_content_22 {width: 300px; Height: 600px; } @Media (min-width: 600px) {.in_text_content_22 {width: 580px; Height: 400px; }} .Adsbygoogle {Touch-Action: Manipulation; } ...

Russian Kostrelli brought ten fires to the Kherson region for explosions (photo)

In the Kherson region, rescuers went on fire during the day - ten of them came from the shelling of the enemy. .in_text_content_22 {width: 300px; Height: 600px; } @Media (min-width: 600px) {.in_text_content_22 {width: 580px; Height: 400px; }} .Adsbygoogle {Touch-Action: Manipulation; } ...

The work of night bombers over the application of the direction was shown by SCO (video)

Small infantry groups and shelters in the direction of Zovsky are affected by operators of heavy night bombers of the 144th center of special operations. .in_text_content_22 {width: 300px; Height: 600px; } @Media (min-width: 600px) {.in_text_content_22 {width: 580px; Height: 400px; }} .Adsbygoogle {Touch-Action: Manipulation; } ...

SBU licked the killer killed by the colonel of a meaningless service in Kyiv – a child

During a special operation, employees of the Ukrainian Security Service liquidated Russian special services agents who, on the FSB of the Russian Federation, committed the murder of SBU colonel in Kyiv. .in_text_content_22 {width: 300px; Height: 600px; } @Media (min-width: 600px) {.in_text_content_22 {width: 580px; Height:...

Rossi Drone Attakoval Traactor in Chernihivshchyna – Vodator is hospitalized

Russian FPV-Drone invaders attacked the border village in the Semenov community in the Kovibru-Siversky area in the ink in the region. .in_text_content_22 {width: 300px; Height: 600px; } @Media (min-width: 600px) {.in_text_content_22 {width: 580px; Height: 400px; }} .Adsbygoogle {Touch-Action: Manipulation; } The...

The result of the ring interchange from the warrior has already predicted 100 billion euros – Cabinet of Ministers

Environmental losses from complete Russian invasion of Ukraine already reach 108 billion euros. To date, more than 9,000 cases of environmental destruction from the actions of the Russian Federation have been registered. .in_text_content_22 {width: 300px; Height: 600px; } @Media (min-width: 600px) {.in_text_content_22 {width: 580px;...

Rosey from evening terrorization of two regions of the region of Dnepropetrovsk, wounded people – OVA (photo)

Russian invaders since yesterday evening, July 12, terrorized two districts of Dnipropetrovsk. .in_text_content_22 {width: 300px; Height: 600px; } @Media (min-width: 600px) {.in_text_content_22 {width: 580px; Height: 400px; }} .Adsbygoogle {Touch-Action: Manipulation; } This was announced today, July 13, in the morning in...

In the Harkov region, the weather brought the life of a person, five more Potrada (photo)

Kharkayv and the region yesterday, July 12, in the evening covered heavy rain with a swollen wind. .in_text_content_22 {width: 300px; Height: 600px; } @Media (min-width: 600px) {.in_text_content_22 {width: 580px; Height: 400px; }} .Adsbygoogle {Touch-Action: Manipulation; } According to preliminary data, one...

Russia meets with the pace

Russians continue to use terrorist tactics against Ukraine, as a result of which the blows are concentrated in a particular city, region. They are trying to maintain such blows by about 300 “Chemed”. .in_text_content_22 {width: 300px; Height: 600px; } @Media (min-width: 600px) {.in_text_content_22 {width:...