Play-off matches begin at Euro 2024 in Germany. If a winner is not determined in regular and extra time, the teams take a series of penalty kicks.
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BILD interviewed Prof. Dr. Christian Hesse. He is the Chair of Mathematical Statistics at the University of Stuttgart and a visiting professor at the University of California, Los Angeles.
A British study of over 1,000 penalty shootouts found that the first team to kick won 60% of the time, compared to 40% for the second team to kick. There is no other sport where simply flipping a coin causes such a large imbalance in the odds of winning. Even in chess, the advantage of white over black at the grandmaster level is only 6%. Additional psychological pressure reduces the chances of the second team shooting by an average of 4%. This leads to the above-mentioned difference of 20% over five strokes,” the professor said.
According to him, a professional football player scores a penalty 75% of the time. But the team’s second-string players cope worse with penalty kicks due to stress.
To eliminate the unfairness, Hesse suggests that the first team should shoot first, then the second team twice, then the first team twice, etc. This would be similar to a tie-break in tennis and would mathematically create almost equal opportunities.
Source: Racurs
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.