Russia has run out of gasoline due to Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries.
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Politico writes that diesel prices for Russians have risen sharply, and gasoline prices have reached a six-month high. Drone attacks on refineries have become both a military and political problem for the Kremlin, because cheap fuel is important for warfare and for Putin’s image.
Moscow has already banned the export of gasoline and diesel. It may have to import gasoline from reserves in Belarus.
Last Wednesday, two fuel storage facilities owned by Russian energy giant Rosneft, about 500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, were severely damaged by drones. More than a dozen oil refineries in nine Russian regions have suffered similar attacks this year, and officials in Kyiv have said the industry is a legitimate war target.
It’s like a mosquito – when you can’t find it, can’t kill it, and it keeps coming back night after night, you’ll be exhausted – Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence officer and NATO planner, said: It’s a very good way to take the pressure off the line front.
As a result, Moscow has cut fuel exports to near-historic lows, shipping just over 712,000 tons of diesel and gasoil last week, compared with more than 844,000 in the same week in 2023.
For Moscow, this is both a political and military problem. As well as being important to Russia’s war effort, cheap fuel is a key part of dictator Vladimir Putin’s proposition to the public, an antidote to delayed wages and a weak ruble.
Winning strategy?
It seems that this trend will remain in the foreseeable future, writes Politico.
Speaking to local media this week, Igor Yushkov, an analyst at Russia’s National Energy Security Fund, said prices were unlikely to fall anytime soon – and the country might even have to import gasoline from reserves held in neighboring Belarus.
Last year, Moscow was forced to ban the export of gasoline and diesel fuel due to shortages in the domestic market, where regulations have historically kept prices low to reassure motorists and artificially stimulate the agricultural sector.
However, since fuel commanded higher prices internationally, middlemen made money by selling cheap gasoline intended for use in Russia abroad, creating a thriving black market. Moscow eased the ban in November but was forced to reimpose it in March due to Ukrainian strikes.
While most Western countries have stopped importing refined Russian fuels such as gasoline and diesel, the United Arab Emirates, along with several American and North African countries, have continued to buy them to take advantage of low prices or to re-export them. Moscow will now have to choose between maximizing the cash flow filling its war chest or ensuring its soldiers and civilians can fill their tanks.
“Physical sanctions” of Ukraine can accelerate actual ones, says Maria Shagina, an expert on the Russian economy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Kyiv has exposed Moscow’s technological vulnerabilities, and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries are accelerating the impact of Western sanctions that are already forcing those refineries to replace Western equipment, parts and software.
But Ukraine’s efforts to cut off the flow of fuel and supplies the Kremlin is using to deal with death and destruction have prompted warnings from the United States, with officials such as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin publicly warning against strikes for fear of blowing up the global energy supply. Meanwhile, Moscow has aggressively attacked Ukrainian infrastructure, destroying the country’s power grid and plunging millions of people into darkness.
Kyiv has vowed to do everything possible to undermine Russia’s ability to wage war, despite the warning.
The strikes have an effect because they destroy oil infrastructure and other critical national infrastructure, said Ingram, a former British military intelligence officer.
This strategy, he suggested, will be “studied in officer training academies decades from now.”
Source: Racurs
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.