The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated in its latest update on events at the front that during the proposed offensive, the Russian army will be able to support offensive actions in no more than one operational direction.
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ISW experts suggest that an event in the Donetsk region, in particular the area of the city of Avdeevka, which recently came under the control of the Russian military, could become such a direction.
The Institute for the Study of War cites the unsuccessful attack of Russian forces, which occurred on March 30 near the village of Tonenke, located near Avdeevka, as evidence that the Russian army can concentrate its main efforts there.
As stated in the report, in this area, Ukrainian troops apparently managed to repel an attack by an entire mechanized battalion of Russian troops. With reference to military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the ISW authors write that on March 30, near Tonenkoye, the Russian army sent 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles into battle.
Geolocated footage released on Sunday showed a large number of destroyed and damaged Russian armored vehicles and tanks along the road, northwest of Tonenkoye, ISW said. — Ukrainian military personnel say that during the attack the Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed 12 Russian tanks and eight infantry fighting vehicles; they note that the attempted frontal attack did not lead to a breakthrough of the Ukrainian defensive line.
This attack was knocked out by the soldiers of the 25th separate airborne Sicheslav brigade. We are talking about the Muscovite 6th Tank Regiment of the 90th Tank Division.
In total, the Russian offensive involved 36 enemy tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles, probably the largest number of armored vehicles that the Russians simultaneously sent for an assault after the capture and occupation of Avdiivka.
According to experts at the Institute for the Study of War, the scale of the attack carried out on March 30 is significant, since Russian forces have not undertaken similar actions since the beginning of the offensive on Avdievka in October 2023.
Ukraine’s ability to repel the attack on March 30, especially near Avdiivka, where Ukrainian troops were forced to quickly retreat […]- this is positive evidence that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can defend themselves against future large-scale Russian offensive actions and the expected offensive operation in the summer of 2024, experts say.
The scale of the offensive of Russian forces near Avdievka suggests that the Russian military leadership considers this direction a priority, and it is here that the upcoming summer offensive may be concentrated, the authors of the ISW information suggest.
Ukrainian officials recently warned of a concentration of Russian troops on the Kharkov-Lugansk axis, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka and in the western Zaporozhye region. But ISW continues to believe that the Russian army will be able to launch concentrated and large-scale offensive actions in only one operational area due to Oxis personnel problems and planning limitations, the ISW report says
Source: Racurs
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