Recently, Russia has been flying fewer Iranian drones over Ukraine and not engaging them in large-scale attacks.
For the second time since the beginning of the year, the Russian army used a massive and coordinated missile attack. First, the enemy launched X-101/X-555/X-55 cruise bombers from Tu-95MS strategic bombers from the Saratov region, and when the missiles reached Kyiv airspace, the invaders released the ground -based ballistics.
Usually, before such a massive shelling, the Russians attacked with “martyrdom”, and then fired missiles. However, since the New Year the situation has changed – the Russian Federation began to combine strikes only with missiles. Moreover, the frequency of drone attacks and the number of UAVs themselves has decreased significantly, why it should, read the story Correspondent.net.
Basic criteria
The fact that the enemy is launching fewer suicide bombers across Ukraine recently was confirmed by military expert Oleg Zhdanov. According to him, the breaks between attacks may be due to an insufficient number of drones. This, according to the expert, is the main criterion.
“As far as we know, Russia has only organized a round-unit assembly of” shahed “, and they have not established such a small, complete independent production. Probably, now there is a certain amount of supplies that can make industry. I doubt they will, because of the presence of the “shaheds” “they gave us a pause about not launching strikes today or tomorrow. Most likely, it is a matter of quantity,” said Zhdanov in a commentary on TSN.ua.
At the same time, Southern Defense Forces spokesperson Natalya Gumenyuk named another reason for stopping the drone attack. According to him, it was affected by worsening weather conditions. However, Oleg Zhdanov denied that the air temperature affected the martyrs.
“It flies at a height of up to a thousand meters, and there the temperature is lower than on the surface. I think it is unlikely to have an effect. If there is rain, snowfall or fog, then it is possible. They are now trying to put the homing head on the suicide bomber.” and she needs air transparency. And this is not the first time they launched suicide bombers in sub-zero temperatures,” explained the expert.
Zhdanov also does not believe that Moscow can stockpile drones to launch a massive attack on Ukraine. After all, according to him, the Russians use these drones as “consumables.”
Lack of ingredients
Zhdanov’s opinion is shared by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. They added that in December alone, Russia launched 770-780 suicide bombers across Ukraine, and this figure is the drones recorded by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. After all, there is still a certain percentage (about 4%) that do not reach Ukraine, do not launch, or explode immediately after launch.
At the same time, the Russians ended their first contract with Iran, which included the supply of drones. Therefore, the Russian Federation was forced to establish its own production of suicide bombs. It is already working in Tatarstan.
“Today, at least two production lines have been deployed there… The next thing that Moscow has managed so far is the establishment of the production of the airframe – the body of these UAVs. Russia is already producing them independently,” said GUR representative Vadim Skibitsky in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.
According to Ukrainian intelligence estimates, the enemy can produce 330-350 units of these drones per month. However, Russia receives most of the parts for drones from other countries, including China, so delays in the supply of spare parts have a significant impact on their production.
As in the case of missiles, all “shaheds” or so-called “Geran-2” produced in the Russian Federation are immediately used for combat, Skibitsky added.
“Moscow’s goal is to reach a full, closed production cycle of such UAVs in Russia by 2026. I am not sure that they will be able to replace or find a Russian analogue, for example, of an electronic base – microcircuits, chips, etc. . But for starters, Now the Russian Federation has the ability to produce the hull, warhead, engine, and other elements of the navigation system,” the intelligence officer explained.
Destruction of drone batches
It seems that the version about the insufficient number of “martyrs” is quite credible. Let’s recall that on the night of November 30 in Bryansk, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liquidated a warehouse with Iranian kamikaze drones.
A month later, on December 26, in temporarily occupied Feodosia, Ukrainian troops destroyed the large landing ship Novocherkassk of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Judging by the strength of the explosion and detonation, there were several types of ammunition on the ship.
Eyewitnesses on local public pages immediately put forward the hypothesis that Novocherkassk brought “martyrs” to Crimea, which the Russian army systematically launched throughout Ukraine. Note that the ship cannot deliver drones directly from Iran, as Turkey does not allow warships of either side of the war to pass through the Bosphorus. But Novocherkassk is involved in the delivery of military cargo, in particular “martyrs” from Russian territory, “by ferry mode.”
Later, the representative of the air force, Yuri Ignat, reported that Novocherkassk could actually deliver military cargo to the ports of the temporarily occupied territories, especially in the direction of Zaporozhye.
“He may also deliver ammunition, in particular suicide bombs, to Feodosia. There is no such information yet, but we hope that as many of these weapons will explode as possible,” added the PS spokesman.
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Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.