Ceasefire signals. Negotiations in 2024

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is sending signals through unofficial diplomatic channels about his readiness for a ceasefire in Ukraine, the New York Times reports.

For a long time nothing was heard about the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The New York Times reported, citing its own sources, that Russian President Vladimir Putin, at least as early as September, through intermediaries, was sending signals of readiness for a ceasefire in Ukraine, which would halt hostilities along the current contact line. Should we believe such propositions?

Where does the information come from?

According to the publication, he learned of such signals from two former high-ranking Russian officials close to the Kremlin, as well as American and international officials.

According to US officials, Putin already tried to negotiate a ceasefire last year, in the fall of 2022. His intentions, previously unknown, emerged after Ukraine defeated the Russian army in North East. Then Putin indicated that he was satisfied with the territories acquired by Russia and was ready for a truce, the publication’s interlocutors said.

Kremlin strategy

Today, while issuing fervent public rhetoric that the Russian Federation’s goals in the war have not changed, Putin is privately indicating his desire to “declare victory and move on.”

Since at least September, Western officials have been receiving new signals that Putin is interested in a ceasefire. The signals come through several channels, including through foreign governments with ties to both the United States and Russia.

“They (the Russians) are saying, ‘We are ready to negotiate a ceasefire.’… They want to stay where they are on the battlefield,” said a senior international official who has met with Russian officials. this fall.

However, some US officials say this may be a routine attempt by the Kremlin to deceive, and does not reflect Putin’s genuine willingness to compromise. Former Russian officials added that Putin could change his mind again if Russian troops gain momentum.

“He’s absolutely ready to stay where he is… He doesn’t want to retreat a meter,” said a former senior Russian official, relaying the message he said the Kremlin was sending behind the scenes.

Coincidence factorsov?

According to current and former officials, Putin is considering a combination of factors that create an opportune moment for a deal: an endless battlefield, the fallout from a failed Ukrainian offensive, weak support for Kiev in the West, a distraction from the Russian-Ukrainian. war situation in Gaza.

Publicly, Putin maintains his aggressive stance, declaring that he is opposed to the West, which seeks to destroy thousands of years of Russian civilization.

But American officials see a shift in Putin’s position, noting that he is no longer demanding the resignation of Zelensky’s government. They say the ceasefire proposed by Putin would preserve a sovereign Ukraine with Kiev as its capital but leave Russia under control of about 20 percent of the Ukrainian territory it already occupies.

The American interlocutors added that while Putin has indicated that he is open to such an agreement, he is waiting for a more concrete proposal.

Among the many likely obstacles is Putin’s determination to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. But a former Russian official said disagreements on the issue would not be a reason for Putin not to negotiate, as the alliance is not expected to accept Ukraine into its ranks in the foreseeable future.

Bluff?

However, senior American officials said they did not believe any significant Ukrainian politician could agree to a deal that would leave so much Ukrainian territory with Russia.

Many in the West are skeptical about the ceasefire because they believe Putin is once again preparing for a future attack.

Statements about signals from Russian President Vladimir Putin of interest in a ceasefire are largely aimed at delaying and preventing further Western military aid to Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). .

According to military analysts, Putin has no serious interest in ending the war other than a complete Russian victory.

ISW observed similar efforts by the Kremlin to deceive Western policymakers and force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia in the winter of 2022-2023.

This was done to effectively redirect the West’s attention to hypothetical negotiations instead of providing Ukraine with sufficient weapons ahead of its spring-summer counter-offensive.

The Kremlin is likely using back channels to achieve this effect amid the debate over providing more military aid to Ukraine.

Ukraine’s reaction

“Today, no negotiations with Russia are possible, because Russia puts an ultimatum as a preliminary disposition – you must surrender. That is, until Russia is defeated or until it finds itself in complete isolation, it will not negotiate (in Ukrainian terms). He is not ready to lose the war, so there are no negotiating positions,” said Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the OP leader.

According to him, any dialogue with Russia would look like an attempt to force Ukraine to surrender. The aggressor wants the captured Ukrainian territories to remain legally behind him. The occupiers also want Ukraine to renounce its sovereignty and gradually descend into a puppet state.