The war in Ukraine has finally moved to a positional state: neither side can conduct a major operation without spending an unacceptably large amount of resources on it.
Ukraine and Russia enter 2024 in a state of trench warfare. That is, a war in which the front line does not undergo significant changes regardless of the intensity of the battle. However, this can change very quickly.
Hope for tiredness
In terms of its objectives, a positional war can be called a war of attrition. Unlike maneuver or blitzkrieg, the objectives here are not the defeat of the enemy’s army, the capture of cities or territories, or access to some strategically important position, but the reduction of the enemy’s army’s fighting ability and the defense capability of his state. in sum, the ability of his people and army to fight.
At the same time, a positional conflict cannot end itself in victory – it can lead to a situation where a tired country agrees to concessions, or creates conditions for war to move to a more active, manipulative one.
The Kremlin is convinced that the military, economic and demographic potential of Russia is higher than that of Ukraine. In addition, the Russian leadership is confident that foreign aid to Ukraine will probably stop, and the West will tire of this war faster than Russia.
Therefore, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) remind us that the failure of Russian operations in Ukraine aimed at achieving the maximalist goals of Vladimir Putin is not a given, and only the continued support of West for Ukraine will guarantee that Putin’s expansionist ambitions remain. can not be reached.
Dead end or not dead end?
ISW assesses that the collapse of Western aid is likely to lead to a collapse of Ukraine’s ability to deter the Russian military, and that the current trench warfare in Ukraine is not a stable stalemate situation. According to analysts, the current unstable balance [на фронте] can quickly lean in any direction – including as a result of decisions made in the West. Therefore, long-term Western security assistance that allows Ukrainian forces to repel current and future Russian offensive efforts and liberate more Ukrainian territory is the only course of action for now that will ensure continued failure of Russia to achieve Putin’s fastest goal in Ukraine.
They will advance
Analysts recall that Russian troops launched localized offensive operations throughout the eastern sector of the front in Ukraine in the most difficult period of the autumn-winter season, trying to seize and maintain the initiative and without waiting for severe frost. ISW predicts that the occupiers will likely try to maintain or enhance these offensive operations regardless of weather conditions this winter, as Russian forces did in the winter of 2022-2023.
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.