Experts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) predicted how much fire intensity the Russian occupying army will be able to maintain in 2024. According to their estimates, Moscow will be able to maintain a significantly lower fire intensity compared to 2022 using its own and North Korean-provided ammunition next year.
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Domestic production of artillery shells in Russia, supplemented by increased imports of ammunition from the DPRK, will likely allow Russian forces to maintain sufficient intensity of artillery fire in Ukraine in 2024, although at a lower level than in 2022. The head of the Intelligence Center of the Estonian Defense Forces, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, said that there are about 4 million artillery shells left in Russia, which the Russian army can use to fight a “low intensity” war for another year.
Kiviselg pointed to reports that North Korea has sent up to a thousand ammunition containers to Russia, each containing 300-500 pieces of artillery ammunition.
According to Kiviselga’s estimates, Pyongyang may thus have provided Moscow with between 300,000 and half a million ammunition, which could last up to one month at the current daily rate of use of about 10,000 shells per day.
Based on Western assessments of Russian artillery production capacity and the continuation of North Korean artillery exports, the Russian Federation will likely be able to maintain a generally sufficient intensity of shelling for the foreseeable future. what will determine the corresponding opportunities in 2024, the analysts concluded.
Source: Racurs
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