During the week, the National Bank sold $873.11 million on the interbank foreign exchange market, which is $570.37 million. more than a week earlier.
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Sales of foreign currency by the National Bank increased to a maximum since the beginning of the year. In total, since the beginning of the year, the NBU has already sold $18.021 billion and bought $195.88 million, according to data from the regulator’s website.
The National Bank, through foreign exchange interventions, will balance the foreign exchange market for exporters and importers to maintain a fixed exchange rate.
This week on the foreign exchange market turned out to be very active and a little nervous. In addition to the usual “fluidity”, the behavior of all market participants was significantly influenced by both internal factors – the meeting of the National Bank Board on the discount rate, and international ones – the ECB meeting on the interest rate.
The Ministry of Finance writes that many clients were afraid of changes not so much in the NBU discount rate itself, but in its possible decisions to let the rate float more or less freely.
Therefore, just in case, in all the days before the regulator’s meeting, clients tried to close their foreign exchange purchases on the interbank market as much as possible. And the National Bank was forced very often to close the entire supply deficit through its interventions to sell foreign currency at the rate of 36.9343 hryvnia per dollar.
As a result, on September 14, the NBU expectedly lowered the discount rate to 20% per annum, set the fee for dept certificates for 3 months at the same 20% per annum, and lowered the fee for overnight dept certificates to 16% per annum.
The fears of those who expected the rate to fall did not materialize, and by Friday the interbank market had relatively calmed down. But only relatively. After all, at their press conference, officials of the National Bank again hinted at an imminent change in the design of the interbank market with elements of floating exchange rate formation. And this leaves the local foreign exchange market in a certain tension.
External factors
According to the decisions of the ECB (read, for the foreign exchange market – for the euro/dollar pair and the euro/hryvnia exchange rate), the situation turned out to be difficult. The European regulator increased the base interest rate to 4.5% per annum, the deposit rate to 4%, and the ECB short-term loans to 4.75% per annum. That is, he increased all basic thresholds by another 0.25% per annum.
But part of the market was “pledged” to keep rates at the same level. And therefore, after the decisions of the ECB, currency rallies began in the euro/dollar pair, and, accordingly, in the euro exchange rate against the hryvnia.
Thanks to this “disco” for the euro/dollar pair on international markets while maintaining the non-cash dollar at auction in the usual corridor of 36.5686-36.9343 hryvnia, the euro exchange rate for the period from September 11 to September 15 at the close of trading in Ukraine was 15: 00 Kiev time dropped by almost 30 kopecks – from 39.26/39.6415 to 38.9638/39.3534 UAH.
What happened in the cash market
The cash market has had its own history. There is no excitement about the purchase of currency, since the weakening of the National Bank in the form of allowing the population to purchase currency on cards up to 50 thousand hryvnia in equivalent, and the purchase of dollars and euros for three-month foreign currency deposits up to 200 thousand hryvnia in equivalent, play the role of a kind of fuse for the hryvnia exchange rate. But still, the demand for cash currency remains quite high. This is clearly visible from the statistics of the National Bank in recent days.
That is, the statements of the National Bank officials, made at the NBU press conference on September 14, about the imminent change in the rules of the game in the foreign exchange market, still “scare” citizens. And some people still went to exchange offices for cash.
As for the exchange rate of the cash euro against the hryvnia, the situation is somewhat different, which is actually only due to the subsidence of the euro currency on international exchanges during this period.
The “fears” of a certain part of citizens about a possible quick depreciation of the exchange rate will continue this weekend, which will support the trend of recent days, when, in general, the population buys more cash and non-cash currency than it hands over.
Most exchangers this weekend will try to support the trend towards a gradual appreciation of the currency. Although they will also work in reverse format. But at the same time, the spread will be slightly expanded within the following range: for the dollar – from 20-25 kopecks to a maximum of 30-50 kopecks, and for the euro – in the range from 25-35 kopecks to a maximum of 1 hryvnia.
But at the same time, you should not expect any special surprises from exchangers. As soon as the owners of exchangers see that there is no “traction”, they will adjust the rate of sale or purchase of currency in their networks of exchange points to stimulate the growth of the volume of transactions and thus earn money precisely through turnover. The appetites of individual networks of exchangers will be “cooled” by competitors, who are also not averse to making extra money by luring away large solvent clients due to a reduction in the wholesale sales rate for them.
At the same time, the practice of particularly “greedy” exchangers in places with low competition of setting a spread between purchase and sale for both the dollar and the euro in the amount of up to 1 hryvnia will also continue.
The psychological factor of gradually raising currency sales quotes when exchange rates are set by exchangers these days will often work even more than purely economics.
Source: Racurs
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.