The US Department of Defense believes that the recent successes of the Ukrainian Defense Forces suggest a “realistic possibility” of breaking through the rest of the defense lines of the occupying Russian army before the end of 2023, although this will be extremely difficult.
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This was stated by the director of the analytical department of the Intelligence Agency of the US Department of Defense (DIA) Trent Moll in an interview with The Economist.
If we had talked about this two weeks ago, I would have been a little more pessimistic. Their breakthrough through the second defensive belt… is actually quite significant,” Maul said.
DIA will be watching for signs that Russia can continue to supply artillery ammunition to the front lines and maintain local leadership, he said.
He acknowledges that US and Ukrainian officials failed to appreciate the depth of Russian defenses. Ukrainian generals told the Guardian that 80% of Russia’s efforts were aimed at developing the first and second lines of defense. At the same time, Mol says that a significant part of Russian reinforcements remains on the third line.
Administration official Joe Biden pointed out that Ukraine has about six to seven weeks of fighting left before the offensive culminates.
American intelligence indicates that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to break through the remaining Russian borders before the end of the year with a probability of 40-50%. However, limited ammunition and deteriorating weather would make this very difficult.
Even with no breakthrough this year, the DIA believes that if Ukraine can expand its stand around Robotiny, hold its ground and secure its munitions supply, it will be well-prepared for another breakthrough in 2024.
Source: Racurs
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