On Tuesday afternoon, August 15, the Russian ruble continued to fall on the stock exchange. The dollar rose to 98.17 rubles.
An emergency rate hike by the Russian central bank on August 15 did not lead to a strengthening of the ruble. The dollar and the euro continued to grow on the Moscow Exchange, reports Bloomberg.
“Higher rates won’t solve anything. They can only prevent devaluation at the cost of slower GDP growth,” said Timothy Ash, senior emerging market strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management.
According to him, the main problem is the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is not leading it.
Experts believe that the main impact of the exchange rate shock is yet to be seen. The devaluation of the ruble promises the economy an acceleration of inflation, which the citizens of the Russian Federation have not yet felt in their pockets, and it will happen at the most unfortunate moment for the Kremlin – before the elections in presidential in 2024.
“The pass-through effect on consumer prices will increase about six months after the exchange rate shock. And consumer confidence is expected to be at its lowest before the presidential election in March 2024,” he predicted. by Alexander Isakov, Russia economist at Bloomberg Economics.
Moscow Exchange data show that after an unscheduled meeting of the Central Bank, where the key rate was increased from 8.5% to 12% per year, the dollar exchange rate, which fell to 95.11 rubles in the morning , rose to 98.17 rubles. The euro rose to 107.36 rubles, although in the first hours of trading it fell below 104 rubles.
Recall that on August 14, the official rate of the Russian currency exceeded 101 rubles per dollar, while the euro was worth more than 111 rubles. On August 15, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at an emergency meeting decided to raise the key rate by 3.5 percentage points – from 8.5% to 12% per year.
Source: korrespondent
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