The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) concluded in its daily bulletin that a “drone attack on the Kremlin” could be carried out.
Analysts and experts are studying the video of drones exploding in the Kremlin. While Western officials cautiously commented on the likely strike, researchers are trying to formulate possible versions and details of the attack on the Kremlin.
Has anyone tried it?
The Kremlin called the explosions in the Kremlin an attempt on Vladimir Putin’s life. But, for example, The Washington Post, citing experts, rejects the accusations of an assassination attempt on Putin and outlines the two most likely hypotheses of the incident: either it is a symbolic “warning” from Kiev, or a false flag operation from Moscow.
Ukraine categorically denied its involvement in the attack: President Volodymyr Zelensky, adviser to the head of the Presidential Office Mykhailo Podolyak, and the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov said so.
Arguments for presentation
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) concluded that a “drone attack on the Kremlin” could be carried out. There are several arguments in favor of this version of ISW.
First, analysts point out, Russian authorities have been steadily strengthening air defenses around Moscow in recent months, so it’s unlikely that the two drones could penetrate so many layers of air defenses.
Second, if the attack is real, it will come as a surprise to the Russian authorities, and at first they will offer conflicting explanations, as they did after military setbacks such as in Balaklia and Kherson.
Instead, Moscow immediately submitted a detailed report, and such a quick, coordinated and coordinated reaction could indicate that “the attack was prepared from within in such a way that the intended political consequences were more in shame.”
According to ISW analysts, with the help of such a presentation, the authorities tried to show the population that the war is near and everyone should participate in it. It could also serve as an excuse for canceling or severely curtailing the festivities on May 9, which would further reinforce Russians’ sense that it is impossible to live as before.
Review from the BBC
Journalists came to the conclusion that it was not massive gasoline drones that exploded in the Kremlin.
The Ukrainian UJ-22 Airborne drone, the wreckage of which was allegedly found in the Moscow region in late February and late April, is capable of flying 800 kilometers, but its wingspan is 4.6 meters.
However, the Raybird-3 drone with a wingspan of three meters and a maximum range of more than a thousand kilometers was developed in Ukraine.
The minimum distance from the Russian-Ukrainian border to the Kremlin is about 450 kilometers in a straight line. Considering the fact that the aircraft must maneuver along the way, and also, possibly, overcome the headwind, launching the drone at such a range is dangerous – it can simply run out of fuel before approaching the target. But judging by the nature of the flashes in the video, both drones likely had enough fuel left to catch fire.
However, it is not necessary that those who launched these drones were on the territory of Ukraine. So far, the launch site has not been officially announced by either side.
On May 4, Baz reported, citing sources, that flying drones were spotted in the Moscow region on their way to the city. They were discovered, including local residents, however, according to the publication’s sources, the emergency services decided that this was a manifestation of hysteria related to recent reports of drone attacks in other thing.
When they crossed the Moscow Ring Road, the emergency services did not have time to respond to them. If this message is confirmed, it means that Moscow’s air defense is not ready for such a raid.
This seems incredible, because the city itself, and even more than the Kremlin, should be very well protected from air attacks. Electronic warfare systems are located on the territory of the Kremlin – satellite navigators even work poorly near its walls.
Electronic warfare systems can interfere with the control of the drone by radio or interfere with the satellite navigation system, but if the drone uses an inertial navigation system and flies to the target autonomously, then it is difficult to influence it in help of electronic warfare.
As a result, the drones, from wherever they were launched, flew into the Kremlin and probably exploded where they were planned – the probability that two drones flying from different directions with a difference of 15 minutes were shot at almost the same point is not . huge, according to the BBC.
Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.