A counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army could begin as early as this summer, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmigal said in an interview with The Hill ahead of his visit to Washington.
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Shmihal arrived in Washington on Tuesday, April 11.
All our friends and partners clearly understand that in order to go on the counteroffensive, you need to be 100% ready for this and even more,” he said.
When asked about how the latest leaks of American secret documents affect the planning of the counteroffensive, Shmihal said that Ukraine would liberate its territories in any case.
We have proven time and time again that we can do it. We ask our partners around the world for tanks, ammunition, aircraft and armored vehicles,” he said.
What about the onset
Rumors about the imminent start of the Ukrainian offensive have been circulating in the press and social networks for several weeks, but in recent days there has been more and more information about this. Many commentators link the plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the arrival of warm weather, new supplies of armored vehicles, and the readiness of the strike force.
In many Ukrainian and Russian media, the upcoming operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is described both as a “counteroffensive” and as an “offensive”. The fact is that a counteroffensive is usually called an offensive operation, which is carried out during or immediately after the enemy’s offensive, but the military operations of the Russian army in recent weeks are more of a positional character. Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing not so much to respond as to start a new operation, the place and time of which are not yet clear.
Not only military experts and bloggers, but also officials openly talk about the impending offensive of the Ukrainian armed forces. The last time Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke about him was on March 25 in an interview with the Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun.
Then the Ukrainian leader, however, said that the offensive, which was planned for the spring, was being postponed due to a lack of military equipment and ammunition – but he did not say for how long.
This thesis that Ukraine lacks Western military equipment to launch an offensive is not the only one.
There are often suggestions that the offensive operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will begin after the spring off-road in Ukraine ends and armored vehicles can pass through rough terrain, as well as when Ukraine is able to muster a sufficient number of troops.
These factors most likely influence the decision of the Ukrainian General Staff about the time and place of the start of the operation, but there are many others besides them: the readiness and disposition of their own forces, assessment of the state of Russian troops, their deployment at the front and rear, the possibility of overturning reserves.
In addition, there is actually a plan that underlies any operation and provides for certain actions according to the operational plan, taking into account all these factors.
Therefore, if Ukraine is preparing its own offensive, it depends not so much on “General Broudo”, but on the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny, who will make the final decision on its launch.
Perhaps the only thing that can be said indisputably now is that Kyiv would like to launch a large offensive operation, and possibly more than one.
If the political goal of the war for Russia was never really formulated as an understandable idea, then Kyiv explained its goals clearly – the liberation of all territories occupied since 2014. Based on this goal, it is possible to predict the plans of the Ukrainian General Staff, which sooner or later must launch a big offensive.
Strategy
After an unsuccessful attempt to capture Kyiv a year ago, the Russian army changed its strategy: instead of lightning, it began to wage a war of attrition, the main goal of which is to bleed the Ukrainian armed forces.
The calculation was probably that at the time of the change in strategy, Russia had an advantage at least in terms of weapons, military equipment and ammunition stocks. This advantage continues to this day.
Although Russia managed to seize a vast territory in the Lugansk and Kharkiv regions during the summer offensive of 2022, in September the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a counteroffensive, freeing Izyum, Liman, and subsequently forced the Russian troops to withdraw from the right bank of the Dnieper, where they entered at the beginning.
From that moment on, maneuvering combat operations practically ceased in the war, and Russian forces began to slowly push back the Ukrainian army in the Bakhmut region, as well as attack in other directions near Avdiivka, Vuhledar, and in the Kremennaya-Svatovo region.
Such a positional warfare with a lack of maneuvers and deep operations requires large resources – logistical, human, and in general is quite difficult for the economy, since it does not lead to any significant results at high costs.
It is believed that Ukraine, which is in a more difficult economic situation, and which has less human resources and military equipment, suffers from such a war more than Russia.
True, this point of view also has opponents who point to Western assistance to Kyiv and sanctions that weaken Moscow. True, from a purely military point of view, Russia’s armed forces are still larger in number, and therefore it is logical to assume that they are more resistant to a war of attrition.
In any case, positional warfare is no less costly than maneuver warfare, but not as successful.
Source: Racurs
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.