Cuba: Worst economic crisis in three decades triggers unprecedented exodus from island

Worst economic crisis over three decades in Cuba caused an exodus not seen on the island, despite the fact that in the more than 60 years since the victory of the Revolution under the leadership of Fidel Castro, there were many Cubans who were looking for a better life outside of them.

United States, traditional country of destination Cuban emigrationa record number of Cubans have been recorded arriving at their borders, mostly by land via Mexico, although there are those who continue to attempt the dangerous journey from the island to the coast of Florida.

According to official figures, the US Border Patrol recorded a record 224,000 “encounters” with Cuban migrants in the fiscal year 2021-2022, which runs from October to September, a figure that does not directly translate into Cuban migrants, since the same person can make several transition attempts. The data is saved in the following months, when more than 44,000 meetings were held in December last year.

This figure means that about 2% Cubans tried to leave the island last year, which has already led some experts to even talk about “depopulation” and pay attention to the impact this could have on the future, given that those leaving are mostly young and adults of working age. and the population of the island is very old.

The data is much higher than that recorded in previous migratory waves from the island due to the short period of time during which they occurred. Thus, after the victory of the Revolution, it is estimated that about 250,000 Cubans They went into exile between 1959 and 1962, and during the so-called Mariel exodus in 1980, there were about 125,000 of them. During the so-called “freedom flights” between 1965 and 1973, they left Cuba about 300,000 people, while in the 1994 rafter crisis there were more than 30,000).

Increasing flights to Florida

Those arriving by land from Mexico are joined by those arriving by sea. Since October 1 last year, the US Coast Guard has intercepted 5,862 Cubans on various types of vessels attempting to reach the coast of the United States, which contrasts with 6,182 Cuban interceptions that took place in fiscal year 2022. 2021 and 49th of 2020.

The increase in those who go to sea to reach Florida has also led to an increase in deaths. Since 2014, 425 people have died or gone missing on the migration route, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Cuba to the United States, 202 of them in 2022, a record number that contrasts with 66 in 2022. So far this year, 53 deaths or disappearances have already been reported.

serious economic crisis

The reason for this exodus is none other than the fact that “Cuba facing the worst economic crisis since the Special Period,” writes economist Carmelo Mesa-Lago in an article published by Florida International University’s Cuban Research Institute, which focuses on the crisis that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

In the absence of more recent data, the island’s GDP fell by 10.9% in 2020, the worst since the 14.9% fall that occurred in 1993. For 2022, the Cuban government has set a growth rate of 4%, but in the end it would be about 2%, although this is not an official figure, the economist emphasizes.

Among the reasons for this crisis, Mesa Lago cites the inefficiency of the island’s economic system, the bad economic situation that Venezuela is experiencing, on which the Cuban economy is largely dependent, and “tough sanctions imposed by President Donald Trump, who reversed the process of rapprochement initiated by President Barack Obama, and reinforced the embargo imposed decades ago.

Added to this are the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has reduced tourism, one of the main sources of income, and now the war in Ukraine, which has led to rising food and oil prices.

The political context does not help either. “The government continues to crack down and punish virtually all forms of dissent and public criticism,” emphasizes Human Rights Watch (HRW) in its recent annual report. “Government repression and a clear lack of will to address the root causes that forced people to take to the streets” in July 2021 “forced Cubans to leave the country in unprecedented numbers,” he emphasizes.

Reasons for the exodus

The exodus to the United States was due to various reasons. One of the key factors was Nicaragua’s decision in November 2021 to eliminate the need for a visa for Cubans. Since then, many have chosen to fly to this Central American country and start the long journey from there, while avoiding the dangerous Darien Passage between Colombia and Panama, another of the main migration routes to Mexico.

It also seems to contribute to the fact that more Cubans. “Before (Joe) Biden, the refugee status recognition rate was 45 to 48 percent, and now it is 55 percent,” Ariel Ruiz of the US Migration Policy Institute said in a statement to Deutsche Welle. “Although not drastic, the numbers seem to indicate that there have been changes to speed up the processes of Cubans,” he adds.

To try to contain the arrivals, the Biden administration approved a new policy in January that would take 30,000 migrants from Cubaand from Venezuela, Haiti, and Nicaragua under the “parole” system, which would require them to be sponsored in the United States.

After background checks, these migrants will be able to stay in the country to work for two years while they complete the procedure, and two years while they wait for the completion of procedures to obtain legal permanent residence.

Those who arrive at the US borders through other procedures will not be able to access this process and will be immediately deported to Mexico, which will have to accept the return of 30,000 of them per month, according to the January 5th measure. These people will not be able to re-enter the United States for five years.

Other destinations for Cubans

But while the United States is the main destination for Cubans leaving the island, it is not the only one. Since they have to cross Mexico on their journey, more and more people are choosing to seek refuge in the country of the Aztecs.

In 2022, just over 18,000 Cubans requested refugee status in the country – the second nationality after Honduras – almost 8,300 in 2021 and 5,700 in 2020, according to the Mexican Commission for Assistance to Refugees (COMAR).

Arrivals in the EU also doubled, although in this case the numbers are much more modest. Thus, according to the EU Asylum Agency, in 2022, 3,347 asylum applications were submitted against 1,765. Of these, only about 9% receive a positive response.

Among those who came to the EU seeking asylum, many did so through the Western Balkans, taking advantage of the visa-free regime that exists with Serbia, as well as with Russia. According to an IOM survey last summer, Cubans make up 6.9% of migrants heading through Bosnia, a country neighboring Serbia. (Europapress)