The world is hopeless. War Situations from ISW

The Institute for the Study of War in a new report examines the actions of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and predicts the course of the conflict in Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin shows no willingness to negotiate and retreat from his maximalist goals in the war against Ukraine. This means that the only viable option for Ukraine and the West is a series of victories for the Armed Forces of Ukraine – changing military realities in such a way that the dictator is forced to accept them de facto, the Institute for the Study believes of War. , based on which it predicts additional war scenarios.

Failure to fail

“The war will continue as long as Putin believes he can impose his will on Ukraine,” ISW experts are convinced.

However, Putin has made it clear in his words and actions that he has not reached that conclusion, despite the failure of his significant military efforts this winter. His attempts to freeze Ukraine and Europe to force them to surrender have ended in nothing, and Russia’s winter-spring offensive operations, which should reach the borders of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, are coming to an end end without realizing this goal.

The ongoing attacks on Bakhmut and Avdiivka have been not only pointless, but actually detrimental to Russia’s preparations for the next phase of this war, centered on a future Ukrainian counter-offensive, analysts say. of ISW. Whether or not Russian forces can dislodge Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka or Bakhmut, they will not have a significant operational advantage, as they lack the ability to capitalize on such a development even if these cities are captured. “It seems that the Russians have little chance to achieve at least tactically important conquests in the western part of the Donetsk region or along the front line in Lugansk, but attacks in all these areas are continues,” said experts at the Institute. According to them, Putin’s continuation of these offensive operations in the current operational and strategic context is a strategic crime. It is spending Russia’s limited combat power chasing pointless victories instead of preparing its forces for a likely Ukrainian counteroffensive, analysts say.

What Ukraine needs

To convince Putin to start negotiations on terms other than achieving all of his stated goals, a series of successful Ukrainian counteroffensives (not just one) is a necessary – though not the only – requirement. “Ukrainian forces must demonstrate that they can do what Russian forces cannot: namely, change the reality on the ground with military action,” ISW analysts said. The Armed Forces of Ukraine must cause more damage to the Russian military power: “to the point where it became clear to Putin and his inner circle that the Russian army cannot hope to improve the outcome of the war by continuing to fight.” “Therefore, several major Ukrainian achievements at the operational level are likely to be critical to creating any hope of a negotiated solution to the current conflict or to force Putin (de facto) to accept undesirable military reality in the absence of a formal settlement,” the experts. graduate. Institute.

ISW sees reason to expect that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will indeed achieve success in counteroffensives. In this war, Ukraine has already conducted two major counteroffensive operations, not counting the expulsion of Russian troops from Kyiv and northern Ukraine. And although various analysts in the world debate the ability of Ukrainian forces to break the prepared defensive positions of the Russian Federation, the fact remains that while the Russian forces have shown that they will not be able to achieve significant success at this stage of war, the Ukrainian forces have not yet. experienced defeat in such attempts.