The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its next report on the situation at the front concludes that the pace of the Russian offensive in Ukraine has slowed down compared to previous weeks, and the Wagner PKK forces trying to capture Bakhmut are close to climax – that is, the weakening of the attackers . opportunities.
Institute experts refer to the data of the official representative of the Ukrainian army, Colonel Aleksey Dmitrashkovsky, according to whom the Russian army now conducts from 20 to 29 ground attacks daily, while earlier their number was from 90 to 100. Dmitrashkovsky explains this by significant losses in manpower and weapons, experienced Russian forces.
These findings “are in line with ISW’s overall assessment of the pace of Russian action across the front in Ukraine,” the summary said.
According to ISW, “the Russian offensive in the Luhansk region is “probably approaching a climax, if it has not already reached it, although Russia has sent at least three divisions to the Svatovo-Kremennaya line.”
Over the past week, Russian forces have made only minimal tactical gains along the entire front line in the Luhansk region, and Ukrainian forces have likely been able to counterattack and recapture the territory, American experts write.
ISW writes that in the hottest sector of the front, in the vicinity of Bakhmut, the forces of the Wagner PKK are probably also approaching a climax. In its construction, the institute cites Ukrainian military sources, noting a decrease in the number of attacks in the area of this settlement in the past few days.
The Institute for the Study of War also talks about the assertion of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of PIK Wagner, about the capture of the small village of Zalizyanskoye near Bakhmut. According to American experts, this indicates that the “Wagnerites” are likely to make only local attacks on small settlements that are not too difficult to capture.
At the same time, as stated in the summary, such territorial acquisitions indicate that the losses inflicted by the PIK “Wagner” limit the ability of the private military company to complete the cordon of Bakhmut – and they will not allow to capture the city or achieve other operationally significant successes.
Reserve Battle
The institute notes that “Russian forces will most likely have to commit significant reserves to the area to avoid such a climax.” And he notes that the Russian army may be capable of this, since the ISW fixed in Bakhmut and near it parts of the airborne troops, which “now do not take too active part in the hostilities.”
The Russians can also send other units of the regular army near Bakhmut, but the Wagner PIK offensive alone is perhaps not enough to capture the city.
In this theater of operations, Russian forces are not actively or successfully offensive in other areas, and as the pace of operations in critical sectors of the front slows down, Ukrainian forces are likely to have a greater opportunity to regain the initiative, experts say.
Despite this, the construction describes some progress by Russian forces in the Bakhmut area in recent days, including in the northern parts of the city itself, near the AZOM plant, as well as to the northeast and northwest of the village.
Construction of the Armed Forces
The Russians are concentrating their main efforts in five directions, they made 75 attacks per day, 1040 invaders were liquidated per day, the General Staff said on the morning of March 16.
The main efforts of the enemy are concentrated on the Limansky, Bakhmutsky, Avdeevsky, Maryinsky and Miners directions. In the Zaporizhia and Kherson directions, the enemy is conducting a defensive action.
As of the morning of March 16, 2023, the losses of the Russian invaders since the beginning of the aggression amount to approximately 162,560 people.
Source: Racurs
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