War in Ukraine. “If Wagner retreats, the whole front will collapse,” threatens Prigozhin.

Is this a threat or a way to claim the laurels of Bakhmut’s possible conquest? Yevgeny Prigozhine, head of Russia’s Wagner military group, whose men are on Ukraine’s eastern front, has again complained about ammunition shortages, attributing delivery delays to the possibility.betrayal“.

“Orders placed for delivery on February 23rd. However, to date most of the ammunition has not been sentPrigogine said in a post on social networks on Sunday evening. He mentioned two possible reasons for the delay.Usual bureaucracy or betrayal“. In another video released this weekend, the manager warns: “If Wagner leaves Bakhmut now, the whole front will collapse“. “It will collapse to the borders of Russia, maybe even further. In general, the situation will not be the most pleasant“, he continued.

Last month, Yevgeny Prigogine redoubled his scathing criticism of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, accusing them of “betrayalrefusing to supply Wagner with ammunition.

Private militia could represent a quarter of Russian fighters in Ukraine. By mid-December, the White House had already estimated its manpower at 50,000: 10,000 mercenaries and 40,000 recruited from Russian prisons. Strengthened by his number and influence,It is clear to us that Wagner is well on its way to becoming a force to rival the Russian regular army“, the White House also assessed in mid-December.

Communication strategy

Are these recurring tensions a sign of real competition between Russian military forces at the front? “We pay as much attention to Prigogine’s personal game as we would like to see political discord“, tempers General 2S and FRS researcher Olivier Kempf. “And if there are obviously struggles for influence in the Kremlin, and Prigozhin is an actor, he continueshe chose, unlike the others, a communication strategy that consists of making noise, but it’s hard to know what that really means.“.

It is hard to believe, for example, the researcher observes, that Wagner is facing real supply difficulties when the report of the fire clearly favors the Russians. In any case, Wagner’s militia leader chose to show himself. She now regularly appears with her men. “They fought bravely and diedHe says, for example, in a video where he is present at the coffin of the killed soldiers, about sending the coffins to Russia by truck.

Encirclement and evacuation

“Join the world’s strongest private army, defend your homeland, face the third world war like real men“, he also orders in the first video. In the Telegram caption, the group states that the recruitment offices have opened “Almost 30 cities of Russia“, for volunteers aged 22 to 50 and promises a salary of 240 thousand rubles “performance bonuses“.

Wagner’s warriors are on the front line in the battle for Bakhmut, who is about to fall. And both the Ukrainian side and the mercenary group suffered heavy losses in this battle.

Wagner’s mercenaries continue to besiege the Ukrainian settlement, which is fiercely defended by Ukraine. According to the latest information on Monday morning, Ukrainian soldiers have completed the evacuation of the eastern bank of the Bakhmutovska River, which divides the city into two parts. “So they will start evacuating the centerOlivier Kempf notes. “They reinforced the installations to keep the last corridor open to the West and the fall back order“.