Keys to China’s strategy in Ukraine a year after the Russian invasion

China He presented a proposal to resolve the war in Ukraine a year after the start of the Russian invasion. These are the main facets of its growing role in the conflict.

1. Arming Russia?

Ever since the war started China he presented himself as a neutral player but maintained a close relationship with Russia.

State-controlled Chinese companies sold non-lethal drones and other equipment Russia and UkraineAnd Moscow turned to Iran for weapons.

But the United States believes this could change. Secretary of State, Anthony Blinkenstated in February that China it is “considering providing lethal support” to Russia, which Beijing quickly denied, accusing Washington of “stirring the fire” of the war with its massive arms shipments to the Ukrainian government.

The United States has not provided concrete evidence that China is considering sending weapons to Russia, but experts told AFP that this version would be somewhat plausible and that the possible entry of Beijing into the conflict could change the scenario.

2. Chinese proposal

Last year, China he faced growing calls from the West to condemn the war in Ukraine.

Offering itself as a mediator, Beijing last week presented a 12-point peace document that includes respect for the territorial sovereignty of all countries.

The proposal calls on all parties to “support Russia and Ukraine work in the same direction and resume direct dialogue as soon as possible.”

But the document, approved by the UN and Russia, was greeted with skepticism by Ukraine’s allies. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said that Beijing “does not enjoy much credibility because it has not condemned the illegal invasion of Ukraine.”

Bonnie Glaser, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Asia Program, told AFP that the document is “largely a summary of the statements China last year”.

“Beijing still claims that NATO is the cause of the war and refuses to condemn invasion Russian. This is an old wine in a used bottle,” Glazer said.

3. Meetings with Putin’s friends –

But as Beijing defends its neutrality, Chinese President Xi Jinping is meeting with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko this week.

As one of the few reliable allies of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Lukashenko could provide Beijing with updates on the situation in Ukraine and potentially influence China’s strategy on this issue.

Economic relations between Belarus And China they gathered momentum until the pandemic and the Russian invasion hit the global supply chain and economy.

Belarus was used Russia as a rear base for the invasion of Ukraine last February.

4. Dialogue with Zelensky?

On the first anniversary of the Russian invasion President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyexpressed a desire to meet with Xi Jinping to discuss Chinese proposals to resolve the crisis.

“I really want to believe that China will not supply arms to Russia,” Zelensky said.

He Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China He did not give any details about a possible meeting of this kind, limiting himself to the fact that “communication is maintained with the relevant parties.”

Zelensky welcomed the Chinese proposal, as did Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia.

The President of Ukraine could use this meeting to ask Beijing use your influence on Russia to resolve the conflict.

But China showed no sign of such intentions, Elizabeth Vishnick, a researcher at the Weatherhead East Asia Institute, told AFP.

“Against, [Xi] considers a visit to Moscow and repeats Russian propaganda about responsibility USA And NATO in the war,” Vishnik said.

AFP