Experts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) do not expect Vladimir Putin’s February 21 address to the Federal Assembly to announce any further escalation of the war in Ukraine. In his speech, Putin is unlikely to announce a new wave of mobilization or any other significant political decisions, they predict.
Putin delayed his traditional address to both houses of the Russian parliament several times last year, probably hoping to solemnly announce great Russian victories in the war against Ukraine in the course of it, but this never happened – both due to the lack of such victories and in light of the growing criticism towards the Kremlin about the conduct of this war, writes ISW in its next set.
Putin has made a number of unsurprising speeches in the past few months to commemorate various anniversaries, and, apparently, he decided to dedicate his delayed address to the Federal Assembly to the first anniversary of Russia’s recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics.” Possibly, Putin intends to present in a new package the measures taken over the past year to integrate the occupied territories into the Russian Federation, presenting them as a fresh achievement, according to ISW.
Russia’s military failures in Ukraine continue to make it difficult to share their successes with the Russian public, analysts say. Since the capture of Severodonetsk last July, the Russian military has failed to achieve any major operational successes. During this time, Ukrainian troops were able to fire almost 18 thousand square meters. km. territory.
Perhaps Putin chose the date of his message to the Federal Assembly on the expectation that his army would achieve at least tactical success in the Bakhmut area, despite the fact that since July 4, Russian troops have been able to occupy only about 500 square meters at the cost of incredible losses. km of territory in the area.
Putin could announce the start of another wave of mobilization, although most indicators and expert assessments suggest that he will not do so now.
The Russian army has already committed a significant part of its military formations to increased offensive operations in Ukraine, and a shortage of large unenlisted reserves is likely to keep paths from announcing the start of an entirely new large-scale offensive, ISW experts say.
Most likely, Putin will continue to make little meaningful speeches to the public, since the lack of military successes in Ukraine makes it impossible for him to proclaim or even promise a significant victory soon.
The steadfast defense of Bakhmut itself by Ukrainians, despite losses in people and material and technical resources, will not allow Putin to even declare the capture of this city on the anniversary of the start of the war, which would give him, the Russian military and the population new hope for victory and, possibly, increase the readiness of the Kremlin. demand more from its citizens, ISW experts conclude.
Source: Racurs
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