British intelligence reports that the weather continues to play a significant role in the course of the war in Ukraine. Now the ground in the eastern regions of the country is frozen, but warming is expected in the coming week, because the conditions of movement on rough terrain will worsen.
Cross-country travel conditions in eastern Ukraine appear to have remained largely unchanged in recent weeks. On February 8, the soil temperature was about 0 degrees. However, forecasts for the coming week include rising temperatures and melting snow – and conditions will worsen, according to a British analytical report for 9 February.
At the same time, British intelligence predicts that the most unfavorable conditions for traveling over rough terrain due to dirty weather are likely to be in mid-late March.
Commanders on both sides will likely try to avoid planning big offensives at this time. However, the perceived political or operational possibilities may outweigh these concerns, as the Russian invasion at the end of February 2022 showed, according to the UK Ministry of Defense.
Source: Racurs
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