The scale of the Wagner recruitment program for Russian convicts is likely to have been significantly reduced from the peak period between summer and fall of 2022.
On January 31, the Federal Penitentiary Service of Russia published a report from which it follows that the number of prisoners in the country is 433 thousand people, which provides for a reduction of 6 thousand prisoners from November 2022. However, these departments point to a decrease of 23,000 prisoners from September to November. This trend was probably facilitated by recruitment into the ranks of the “Wagnerites”. This is reported in a new report from the UK Department of Defense for February 3.
Also, intelligence, referring to unconfirmed data from the Ukrainian military over the past 10 days, notes that the Russian command is no longer relying on Wagner assault groups and the tactics of “human waves” are being used less and less.
Significant tensions between PIK Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense are being publicly displayed, according to the British. And competition between factions within the Russian elite is probably partly responsible for the shrinking supply of convicts.
In January, British military intelligence reported that the Wagner group in Ukraine was 50,000 people.
Recall that the American Institute for the Study of War stated that the decrease in the dependence of Russian military personnel on the Wagner PIK in the Bakhmut area is likely to reduce the influence of businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Source: Racurs
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