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ISW said where Russia could attack

Photo: Zelenskiy / Official

Russian forces are trying to prevent Ukraine from regaining the initiative, possibly ahead of Russia’s planned decisive offensive in the Donbas.

Russia may conduct several stages of offensive operations, culminating in the complete capture of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. On Saturday, January 28, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported.

According to experts, these phases are likely to last from six to 12 months, but it is unlikely that the occupiers will hold their positions.

As analysts write, Russian forces are trying to prevent Ukraine from regaining the initiative, possibly ahead of a planned decisive Russian offensive in the Donbas.

“The head of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, said that Russian forces are focusing most of their efforts on capturing the Donetsk region, which will likely require Russian troops to capture key positions in the western part of Lugansk region and north.-east of the Donetsk region to reach the administrative borders of the regions,” analysts suggest.

They also point out that the Russians have continued ground attacks in the Vuhledar area and are conducting small-scale attacks in the Zaporozhye region and around Donetsk.

“Russian troops are conducting a large-scale offensive operation on the Bakhmut Front as the main focus of their current efforts and a defensive operation on the Svatovo-Kremennaya line,” the report said.

According to experts, the localized attacks on Vuhledar and settlements in Donetsk and Zaporozhye regions are likely aimed at dislodging Ukrainian troops and creating conditions for a decisive Russian offensive in the western part of the region. of Luhansk.

At the same time, ISW notes that Russian forces likely lack the combat power needed to conduct more than a major offensive operation.

“However, the Russian military leadership may be re-planning an offensive operation based on false assumptions about the capabilities of the Russian armed forces. the Russian armed forces,” analysts emphasize.

They also suggest that the Russians’ efforts could slow down the Ukrainians’ counteroffensive. However, Ukraine’s defense strength will continue to grow as it will further benefit from promised Western tank deliveries.

“Thus, the occupiers are unlikely to achieve decisive operational success in their current and likely future offensive operations, although they are likely to achieve significant tactical and possible operational success,” the document said.

Earlier it was reported that the enemy was advancing in four directions.

Russian losses exceeded 125,000 killed

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Source: korrespondent

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