Al-Qaeda’s strange silence on the successor to its boss, Zawahiri, who was killed in July

With USA announced the death in July of Ayman al-Zawahiri, successor Osama bin Ladenthe jihadist group al-Qaeda has avoided commenting on the veracity of his death.

american president Joe Biden assured on August 2 that he had killed an Egyptian jihadist in Afghanistan when hit by a drone.

But since then, the jihadist group’s official media have continued to broadcast undated audio or video messages from its leader. They neither confirm nor deny his death.

“It’s really rare. The network works only with the leader. You need a person around whom everything revolves,” Hans-Jakob Schindler, director of the independent think tank Counter-Extremism Project, told AFP.

For other experts, all options are open. “Of course, maybe USA wrong about his death,” investigators Raffaello Pantucci and Kabir Taneja noted in early December on the Lawfare website.

Experts recalled that reports of the execution of important jihadist leaders, which later resurfaced, had already shocked Westerners.

“This seems unlikely given the confidence with which President Biden spoke of the bombing,” they analyzed.

Hypothesis of Saif al-Adl

Another hypothesis is that the group would not have been able to contact the intended successor Zawahirihis former number two, Saif al-Adl.

This former Egyptian special forces lieutenant colonel participated in the Egyptian Islamic Jihad in the 1980s.

After his arrest and subsequent release, he went to Afghanistan join al-Qaeda and become Zawahiri’s number two.

However, analysts regularly mention the possibility that al-Adl is hiding in the Islamic Republic of Iran, a Shia country that has little sympathy for this ultra-radical Sunni movement.

For Schindler of the Counter-Extremism Project, “Saif is a burden but also an asset to the Iranian regime.”

Tehran could, depending on its interests, hand it over to the United States or, conversely, allow it to be attacked.

Another possible scenario is that the Taliban have silenced al-Qaeda. Zawahiri was shot dead in an affluent area of ​​Kabul where the authorities could not ignore his presence.

“The decision not to comment [su ejecución] may be part of an effort to manage their fragile but deep relationship with al-Qaeda by trying to appease Washington, which they have promised not to let the group do as it pleases.

Al-Adl could also be dead or in hiding to avoid the fate of his predecessor and two leaders of the rival jihadist group Islamic State (IS), who were killed eight months apart in 2022.

Limited importance of the core

Al-Qaeda’s internal organization is now very different from what it was during the September 11, 2001 attacks in New York, USA.

The group expanded its branches from the Levant to Africa, passing through South Asia. But these subsidiaries are much more autonomous from the central organization than in the past.

The group’s silence following the US announcement of Zawahiri’s death “reflects the limited importance of al-Qaeda headquarters.” It’s a symbol that brings groups together, “but its practical significance is weak,” says Barack Mendelsohn, a professor at Haverford University in Pennsylvania.

In this sense, Al Qaeda and IS have fairly similar difficulties. In November, ISIS announced the death of its Iraqi leader, Abu Hasan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, and the appointment of his successor.

“Although IS has elected new caliphs, no one has ever heard of them. However, the offshoots have remained loyal and continue to swear allegiance to the unknown Caliph,” says Tore Hamming, a Danish political scientist at King’s College London’s Department of War Studies. .

“Behind Al Qaedait could be the same, with simple advice from high personalities who take on the role of emir,” he adds.

AFP