Fake Poll Threat: How can we recognize a fraudulent poll ahead of the 2022 election?

In recent electoral processes, the emergence and dissemination of fake polls on social networks has become regular. Within Municipal and regional elections – 2022these fraudulent activities have already been detected in different parts of metropolitan Lima and different regions of the country.

Poll in recent weeks CPI exposed fake polls about voting intent in tie, Independence D Chorrillo. Similarly, they found a rebound of false information in regions such as Loretto, Arequipa D Cajamarca.

“Many times we find [de la difusión de encuestas falsas] because the same citizens are contacting our emails and networks asking about the authenticity of these photos,” says Omar Castro, general manager of CPI.

Omar Castro notes that at first glance, it can be difficult to determine the authenticity of the survey, since the format of some of them is similar to the official reports distributed by the polling company.

“Some falsifications of reports are almost accurate. They keep the logo, change the words, edit the formats very well and end up posting the content that seems to them or is interesting to the people who do it,” he notes.

In the 2021 presidential and congressional campaigns international datum 48 fraudulent surveys detected. So far, this campaign Regional and municipal elections – 2022The market research company has already exposed on its networks the spread of false polls about the intention to vote in Villa El Salvador, Villa Maria del Triunfo and Callao.

According to Urpi Torrado, the CEO of this poll, the flow of this disinformation content is increasing as we get closer to voting day. “The purpose of these fake polls is to misinform, to attract votes. There are those who believe that false information will affect people’s voting,” notes Torrado.

Fraudulently attract votes

Patricia Zarate, Head of Public Opinion Research Institute of Peruvian Studies (IEP)intention [de estas encuestas falsas] it goes through the positioning of candidates, getting them to show up in the expected places. “Once [un sondeo falso] appears, their circulation is difficult to stop, because they show results that a part of the electorate would like to see.”

“This phenomenon goes beyond socio-economic and educational levels. If you want to go for such a candidate, it doesn’t matter if you have a master’s degree, but you will show a result that is not true, but that favors your candidate,” Zarate says.

Specialists warn that the peculiarities of these elections (district, provincial and regional), which present candidates across the country, may encourage the reproduction of fake polls and hinder control mechanisms.

“Companies that do research nationally often don’t do research in smaller locations because the cost is high. Thus, the polls that are published about the intention to vote in the district, in many cases, cannot be true,” warns Alfredo Torres, Executive President ipsos peru.

How to determine if a poll is true or false?

For Alfredo Torres, it is important that voters confirm the validity of the poll, since the spread of all false information ultimately weakens the democratic system and discredits seriously conducted research.

“There are two criteria that need to be taken into account to determine if a poll is true. One of them is to check the issuer: whether the issuer is a prestigious media outlet. Secondly, check on the survey site whether this survey was really conducted by a questionnaire or it was faked, invented by someone with malicious intent, ”he notes.

If they suspect that the poll is false, voters will be able to search for such content on the website of the cited company. The Voter Polls Regulations requires each organization to publish the results and specifications of its surveys. Another mechanism, already in use by some citizens, is to communicate directly with the networks and email addresses of survey companies.

The confusion caused by the content of misinformation can distort electoral processes. Datum’s Urpi Torrado says that while the purpose of these fake polls is to attract votes – based on the principle that people vote for the winner – there are also people who vote against who comes first. So be careful when reading the results.

“It has not been shown how the polls can affect the population. Polls are another information tool, as they are in all democracies. In the same way that a voter has to look at a government plan, a summary, he also sees polls. More information is available to inform this vote. How people decide is a separate issue,” he notes.