Early elections: 4 scenarios that can be identified after the resumption of debate in Congress

The ball flies from one side to the other. The president Dina Boluarte assures that his resignation will do nothing and that he has sent projects to advance the elections in Congress. In Parliament, with more than 10 benches, they approved a proposal to hold elections in April 2024, but clung to what various experts have defined as “love for alfalfa” and the position they achieved in the popular vote. Reviewed, voted again, reviewed. Legislative power is over. It’s been two months, see you in March with a little more political will.

Moreover, in this political uncertainty, there are actors who openly say they are in favor of staying until 2026 – sincerity is welcome – while analysts, based on the Constitution, Congressional regulations and other official documents, work out possible scenarios in the height of this instability, which already smacks of habit.

What options does the Constitution, Congressional regulations, or common sense give us in a situation of such uncertainty? We consulted with experts to put together the following 4 possible scenarios within the legal and constitutional framework that we could experience depending on how the powers of the state operate. We will describe them below.

1. Resignation of Dina Boluarte

Very unlikely. Firstly, because she practically ruled it out and the proposals, with the exception of those that are still being called, cause her resignation. In this scenario, if Dina Bobluarte does this before the end of March, elections can be scheduled for this year (in December, the 270-day deadline of the Law will be observed, as before the announcement of the elections). Since there are no vice presidents, the president of the Congress takes office and immediately calls an election.

However, suffrage scholar José Manuel Villalobos postulates an interpretation that destroys this premise: “there is a padlock in the Constitution that indicates that the change of command takes place on July 28 of the year in which the elections take place. Until July 28 of this year. it is impossible to hold elections in two rounds for a change of command. If President Dina Boluarte resigns, whoever becomes president is immediately convened. You cannot make a reform before this call, such as the term of taking command with which you have this castle, to make an election in 2023 if she retires.

2. Referendum

One of the scenarios is a public poll. Congress can move elections to a referendum, which requires 66 votes in plenary session. But since the call for a referendum must be held at least 60 days in advance, due to election deadlines, in this case, the election will not be able to take place in 2023, but rather in March or April 2024.

For example, in the best case, if 66 votes are collected in a referendum in March, it can take place only two months later, in May. And depending on the results, the elections could only be called, if I’m not mistaken, 270 days in advance. After adding and subtracting, elections can only take place in March or April 2024.

3. Voting in two legislatures

This is the most commented issue in recent months: after the submission of a draft to move towards elections, Congress must discuss it and approve it with a minimum of 87 votes in two different legislatures. If this were the case, then due to the deadlines for elections, elections could not take place this year, but in March or April 2024.

Curiously, it had already been approved in the legislature even before the elections were rescheduled for April 2024. The vote was finally revised, and everything went back to zero, despite the fact that it was initially supported by 97 congressmen.

inexplicable? This is how the journalist and political scientist Ivan Garcia Mayer explains it. “HOURThere is a kind of contented or happy blockade on the parliamentary scene, either because the left has taken a maximalist position on the Constituent Assembly referendum; and then also this change by reconsidering the first vote, which was received by more than 90 votes in the elections to be held in April 2024, which ended up being shipwrecked.”

4. Emergency Legislature

Although, at the end of this report, it is almost impossible, given that we are about to start a new legislature. One scenario is that the president will convene an extraordinary legislature. Political constitution of Peruin its Article 118 specifies that the President of the Republic may request it. This is confirmed by section 50 of the rules of Congress, which states that after the publication of the appeal, the chairman of the Legislative Assembly orders that congressmen be called immediately. At the moment this has not happened.

“The legislature on March 1, therefore, a few days before [la presidenta Dina Boluarte] may convene an extraordinary two- or three-day legislature with a single agenda, in which a reconsideration presented by Congressman Montoya can be voted on, and in which a new electoral bill is discussed, ”says constitutional lawyer Alejandro Rospigliosi.

Meanwhile, the university counter-reform is changing to Suneda; AFP’s new outlet, drafting constitutional charges against campaign presidents, is a priority for most congressmen.

Neither he Congress neither he Executive They seem to agree to an early election, although parts of the legislature and the president himself are in favor of them. Voices speak more than words.