The disaster -tired world will face more disasters in the interconnected world in the coming years, according to a UN report released on Monday.
If current trends continue, the world will go from approximately 400 disasters per year in 2015 to approximately 560 disasters per year by 2030, the scientific report says. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction Aniya. Between 1970 and 2000, the world experienced only 90 to 100 moderate and major disasters per year, the report said.
The number of severe heatwaves in 2030 will be three times higher than in 2001 and there will be 30% more drought, the report says. It’s not just natural disasters that have exacerbated Climate change This is the COVID-19 Economic crisis and food shortages. Climate change has a huge impact on the number of disasters, the report’s authors say.
“People today don’t know the cost of disasters,” said Father Misutori, head of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. “He said, ‘We’re alone in this vicious circle.’
That means the public needs to reconsider how they finance, address and communicate disaster risk and what they value most, the report says. About 90 percent of disaster costs currently spent are on emergency assistance, with only 6 percent for reconstruction and 4 percent for prevention, Mizutor said in an interview Monday.
Not every storm or earthquake is supposed to be a disaster, Misutori said. Many injuries can be avoided with planning and prevention.
Disasters in 1990 cost the world approximately $ 70 billion a year. According to the report’s authors, they are now worth more than $ 170 billion a year, and this is happening after inflation adjusts. Nor does it involve indirect costs that we rarely think about, Mizutori says.
The death toll from the disaster has continued to decline over the years thanks to improved warning and prevention, Misutori said. But over the past five years, the number of deaths from disasters has been “higher” than in the past five years, said Roger Pulwart, co-author of the report, National Climate and Social Scientist for the U.S. Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. .
This is because both COVID-19 and the disasters caused by climate change came in previously unknown places, such as tropical storms in Mozambique, Misutori said. Furthermore, the interaction of disasters with each other exacerbates damage such as forest fires and heat waves or war in Ukraine, as well as food and fuel shortages, Pulwarti said.
According to Pulwart, if society changes risk thinking and prepares for disasters, the recent increase in annual disaster deaths could be temporary, otherwise it is likely to be a “new anomaly.”
Disasters hit poor countries harder than rich ones, and recovery costs take a larger share of the economy from countries that can’t afford it, says Marcus Enenkel, co-author of Harvard Humanitarian Initiative.
“These are events that can undermine the results of development work and bring vulnerable communities or entire regions into a downward spiral,” he said.
According to Pulwart, the simple onset of disasters only increases when minor diseases attack and the body’s immune system is weakened.
The report asks for an analysis of how we approach risk. For example, instead of asking about the chances of a disaster this year, say 5%, officials should think about the 25-year chance, which makes it quite credible. Talking about a 100-year flood or the possibility of it happening multiple times over 100 years seems far-fetched, Misutori said.
“In a world of mistrust and lack of information, this is the key to progress,” said Susan Cutter, director of the University of South Carolina’s Institute for Danger and Vulnerability, who was not part of the report. “We can move forward to reduce key risk factors: inequality, poverty and, most importantly, climate change”.
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Source: Huffpost
