Although the Covid-19 epidemic has now receded, it has not disappeared, as indicated in its first opinion by the Committee for Monitoring and Prediction of Health Risks (Covars). The epidemic situation, the emergence of variants, vaccination, prospects for new treatments, actions to be taken… This Scientific Council 2.0, which was created by decree last July and whose mission extends to all infectious risks and pollutants, has just inventoried some. weeks before the big crossroad of winter viruses. The goal is clear. act now to avoid being overwhelmed by a virus we now know how to contain. Especially since with the relaxation of the ban gestures, the usual winter viruses will resume their service.
“We have seen a steady increase in BA.4 and BA.5 cases since the beginning of September, the start of the academic year, but in the last two weeks it seems we have reached a peak. of this new channel.Professor Fabrice Carat, an epidemiologist at Covars, said at a press conference on Monday. The recovery from the epidemic that we are now experiencing, the 8th, is intense.”moderate“because his gravity was”from weakened herd immunity acquired through vaccinations and previous exposure to the virus“, – notes Covars in his opinion. However, the weight of the epidemic on the hospital system is far from ridiculous. Just under 20,000 people are currently hospitalized, including a thousand in intensive care units, and about 80 deaths are reported daily, according to Public Health. France:
Promising signs to watch out for
Even if the indicators show that the situation is improving, scientists want to be cautious at this stage. “It is unclear how seasonal factors will affect the dynamics of the epidemic in the next few months, and then there is a risk of the emergence of new variants of immune escape. Thus, it is not impossible that in the medium term there may again be an increase in epidemic cases and therefore 9.e uncertain”, Professor Karat explained. There is nothing surprising about this virus, which since its appearance has continued to evolve in order to spread better.
The BQ.1.1 variant is “in the process of replacing BA.5” and “has mutations that may allow it to partially evade preexisting immune defenses.”
Mr. Bruno Lina, Infectious Disease Fellow, Covars.
A new, even more powerful version may appear sooner than we think. Since the end of September, the BA.5’s little brother, named BQ.1.1, has been gaining ground in France, but also throughout Europe. It even already represents half of the cases in Ile-de-France. “It replaces BA.5Professor Bruno Lina, an infectious disease specialist who is also a member of Covars, explains. “It has mutations that may allow it to partially evade preexisting immune defenses“. Now scientists are waiting to see if the accelerated circulation of BQ.1.1 is accompanied by the resumption of the epidemic. “So far we have no signal in this direction.says Professor Lina.
While waiting to see more clearly, Covars scientists recommend that decision makers in particular emphasize the vaccination campaign for the third reminder this fall. “It is specifically aimed at people aged 60 and over, those with risk factors and those around them.”, recalled Professor Brigitte Autra, President of Covars. Therefore, potentially 18 million people are affected if they were not infected with the virus less than three months ago. Note that the vaccines available now are slightly different from the previous ones. They are bivalent, meaning they provide protection against both the original virus strain and the Omicron BA.1 (Moderna and Pfizer) or BA.5 (Pfizer) variant.
Covid, bronchiolitis and flu. the dreaded trifecta
If experts expect a moderate impact of Covid on the hospital system in the coming months, they fear the consequences of the diseases that will add to it. illness”is part of the burden of winter illness and will add to influenza and other respiratory infections, which is why it is so important; [de se faire vacciner] before winterProfessor Autran insisted. Each winter, influenza causes an average of 19,000 hospitalizations and about 45,000 cases of bronchiolitis, especially in infants under one year of age. “The impact of these epidemics on the hospital system is amplified by the current fragility of the hospital“, – emphasizes Covars in his opinion. A fragility that is particularly evident in the numbers of hospital absences last winter. From 11 to 16%.
“We think that today we are no longer talking about the mask, and that is worrying. It is necessary to resume messages encouraging the wearing of masks in indoor and public places. »
Annabel Desgrées du Loû, demographer, member of Covars.
Covars also recommends increasing communication about wearing masks and continuing to promote screening, two points on which authorities have recently relaxed considerably. “We believe that today we are no longer talking about the mask, and this is worrying. There is a need to resume messages encouraging the wearing of masks indoors and in public”, assesses Annabel Desgrées du Loû, demographer and one of the 19 members of Covars. “However, we do not think that we should go back to mandatory mask wearing. Thanks to vaccination coverage, we are no longer in the same situation as we were a year or two ago.»
SEE ALSO – Covid-19. “Now is not the time to relax in Europe”, warns the WHO.
Source: Le Figaro
