The reasons for the reduction in the grain harvest are a reduction in the total area sown by 45% – to 8.7 million hectares, a change in the structure of crops in favor of oilseeds and a decrease in the yield of grain crops .
The expected total yield of grain crops in Ukraine in 2023 will decrease by 60% in 2021, oilseeds – by 15%. According to the Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business (UCAB) association, the total grain yield in 2023 may reached 34 million tons, which is 37% less than in 2022 and 60% less than in 2021. While the oilseed harvest is expected to reach 19.3 million tons, which is 13% more than in 2022 and 15% less than in 2021.
The reasons for the reduction in the grain harvest are a reduction in the total area sown by 45% – to 8.7 million hectares, a change in the structure of crops in favor of oilseeds and a decrease in the yield of grain crops .
Of the 28.4 million hectares cultivated in 2021, as of December 2022, 24.6 million hectares of land (86% of the total territory) are located in the controlled territory of Ukraine (86% of the total territory), where it is impossible to carry out agricultural work in another 3.8 million hectares due to proximity to the front line, their contamination with mines and shells, etc.
In addition, the end of the sowing campaign for winter crops showed a significant reduction in hectares – in 2022, 3.8 million hectares of winter crops were sown, which is 43% less compared to 2021.
The reason for this, according to the association, is the limited ability to export crops, expensive logistics and, as a result, a significant difference in prices for crops by region.
Regions that are territorially close to EU ports and borders have higher prices for products compared to regions in the north and east. So, in Transcarpathia the price of 1 ton of corn with VAT is UAH 6800, and in the Sumy region it is UAH 4900. However, even in the western regions the price is unprofitable. Therefore, border proximity with the EU and working ports determine the ability of the respective areas to continue grain production.
Next year, there will be an increase in the area under oilseeds due to their higher marginality compared to grain crops and a significant increase in the cost of grain logistics this year.
The price of oilseeds is 2 times higher than the prices of cereals in the world market. The area under oilseeds is expected to be 9.7 million hectares, which is 32% more than in 2022 and 9% more than in 2021. For the first time, the sown area under oilseeds will be greater than under the grains.
Earlier it was reported that Ukraine harvested 58 million tons of agricultural crops.
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Source: korrespondent
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