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Last month, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) lowered Peru’s economic growth forecast to 2.7-3%, but will it hold up?
The specialists note that, given that there are only a few days left before the end of the year, the failed coup d’état will not have much impact on GDP this 2022.
“Their impact on this year’s performance will be negligible, very negligible, but the question is, what will happen next year? Then we will see what happens at the end of the day,” said the former economy minister. Carlos Oliva.
For his part, former head of the MEF Luis Miguel Castilla notes that if the constitutional course is followed, when Dina Boluarte leads the government, then only short-term economic noise can be seen.
Castilla warned that if the political crisis spawns more uncertainty “What will be at risk is that next year we will even have (growth) 2%.”
Forecasts for 2023
Other experts point out that even under an optimistic scenario, Peru’s economic growth is unlikely to exceed 3% next year, since there are no structural conditions for increasing the country’s competitiveness.
Although Ministry of Economics predicts that Peru will grow between 3.1% and 3.9% in 2023, other organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund estimate that growth will be only 2.6%, which is considered increase mediocre.
Meanwhile, other organizations such as Bank of America warn that Peruvians could face an economic downturn in the second half of next year.
Source: RPP
I’m Liza Grey, an experienced news writer and author at the Buna Times. I specialize in writing about economic issues, with a focus on uncovering stories that have a positive impact on society. With over seven years of experience in the news industry, I am highly knowledgeable about current events and the ways in which they affect our daily lives.