Due to the sharp increase in the budget deficit and declining GDP, Ukraine’s public debt will remain at a high level over the next five years.
Ukraine’s state debt in 2022 will grow by 37% due to the war, the IMF predicts.
According to his data, by the end of the year, public debt will increase to 86.2% of GDP after falling from 61% to 49% of GDP last year.
In the coming years, public debt will remain at high levels due to the sharp expansion of the state budget deficit and declining GDP.
In particular, by the end of 2023, the IMF expects Ukraine’s public debt at the level of 78% of GDP, 2024 – 78.7% of GDP, 2025 – 82.9% of GDP, 2026 – 88.7% of GDP and 2027 – 92.3% of GDP.
Based on these figures, the IMF estimates total fiscal and debt repayment needs this year at 27% of GDP.
It also clarifies that the average maturity of Ukrainian debt is 6.8 years, and the difference between the interest rate for serving it and the dynamics of the economy for 2022-2027 is estimated at 0.6%, which means the need to have a primary state. excessive budget.
According to IMF forecasts, in 2022 the state budget deficit of Ukraine will grow to 17.8% of GDP from 4% in 2021.
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Source: korrespondent
