The global demand for oil is growing slower, the OPEC+ agreement is losing its efficiency, and an excessive Capacity in the Middle East and an increase in production in South America that provides market pressure.
The updated main forecasting of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation is critical to the protection or removal of international penalties. Analysts predict an increase in the average Urals oil price from $ 58 per barrel to 2025 to $ 65 in 2028, but this situation is only possible in the case of Russia’s release from international separation. This was reported by Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service on Monday, September 29th.
“The global demand for oil is growing slower, the OPEC+ Deal is losing its efficiency, and excessive capacities in the Middle East and the rise of the victim in South America are pressed into the market. As a result, the cost of Brent can fall to $ 60 per barrel, which will drop the Kremlin’s income,” the message said.
The department recalled that in August 2025, the Urals cost only $ 56.1 per barrel with a discount of $ 12.1 to Brent. A return to a more useful break ($ 1-2) is only possible if the European embargo is canceled and Russian companies from the list of penalties in America. Whereas without Russia’s oil it would be ruined by discounts.
However, they add to SVRA, there is no more difficult situation in the gas industry. The Russian Federation government expects LNG exports will grow from 34.6 million tons to 2024 to 58.4 million tons in 2028. However, it is impossible to provide such volumes even thanks to the Arctic LNG 2 – new projects are required, among which the key is under the US penalties.
In addition, problems are also in the refinement of oil. In particular, even according to optimistic forecasts, the growth of oil products exports from 122.5 million tons to 2024 to 134 million in 2028 is possible only when accessing western equipment, which is prohibited from 2022.
Earlier it was found that the Russian FNB continued to dissolve. According to the May results, its size reduced to 11.7 trillion rubles – at least since 2019. In fact, available funds have been reduced further.
Remember that a review of the foreign economic state of the Russian Federation, published by Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, suggests that Russia can “eat” FNB by 2026 due to rapid reduction of oil revenues.
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Source: korrespondent
I’m Liza Grey, an experienced news writer and author at the Buna Times. I specialize in writing about economic issues, with a focus on uncovering stories that have a positive impact on society. With over seven years of experience in the news industry, I am highly knowledgeable about current events and the ways in which they affect our daily lives.