More than 20 trillion rubles issued to the military, contractors and defense plants have created the illusion of welfare. But counting has come in the form of a flow of inflation, increasing interest rates and growing business problems.
After two years of military “Boom”, when the Russian GDP rises more than 4% annually, the Russian economy has entered backwards, Andrei Klepach, the Bank’s main economist, one of the largest state banks with the “State Development Corporation” financing status of the “State Development Corporation” financing the National projects of Kremlin. About this writes TMT on Friday, August 29th.
According to VEB estimates, in the second quarter of Russia’s GDP, it dropped 0.6% compared to the first quarter. In the first quarter, the collapse costs the same 0.6% relatives to the fourth. Two quarters in a row with negative dynamics are considered a “technical retreat.”
In the annual scale, the Russian Federation economy remains in “plus”, but the growth rate is less. If in the fourth quarter of 2024 they cost 4.5%, then in the first quarter of this year – only 1.4%, and the second – 1.1%. In July, according to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the annual growth was almost stopped – 0.4%.
On the edge of the disappearance – from 0.7% of growth in July – the industry has been. And the industries, which the authorities expect to import replacements, combined with a deep decline: clothing – 7%year for years, furniture – by 12%, de -electrical equipment – by 6.5%. The strongest backdown from the beginning of the war occupies the metallurgy, where the issue collapsed 10.2%.
Cleepach’s opinion at the beginning of the technical backdown was shared by MMI analysts, while the Raiffeisenbank and capital economy believed that the economy had escaped it and showed an increase by 0.3% compared to the first quarter.
However, in one way or another, it is clear that the economy “balances the edge of a backward” and is likely to slide it into the nearest residence, says Tatyana Orlova, chief economist Oxford Economics. The economy was pressed by the imbalances that had accumulated during the war, the economic economy Liam Pich indicated.
More than 20 trillion rubles, distributed by the state to the military, contractors and defense plants, have created the illusion of great -being. But counting has come in the form of a flow of inflation, increasing interest rates and growing business problems.
The situation is complicated by penalties, low oil prices and problems with private rights that drive away the desire to invest, summarizing the senior researcher with Cepa Alexander Kolyandr.
Remember, according to Rosstat, in January-June the economy of the Russian Federation added only 1.2%, and in the second quarter-1.1%. The industrial growth rate has dropped more than double – from 4.6% of the last year to 2% to the end of June, and the real salary increased 2.5 times – 3.8% more than 9.7% by 2024.
According to the IMF’s forecast, by the end of the year the Russian economy will grow 0.9% – three times slower than the world, and five times slower than the Chinese.
Putin was expressed through failures in forecasts for the Russian Federation economy
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Source: korrespondent
I’m Liza Grey, an experienced news writer and author at the Buna Times. I specialize in writing about economic issues, with a focus on uncovering stories that have a positive impact on society. With over seven years of experience in the news industry, I am highly knowledgeable about current events and the ways in which they affect our daily lives.