Economic growth can be prevented by the consequences of the war, especially through the lack of labor market, strengthening the flow and destruction of gas infrastructure.
In the first quarter of 2025, the Ukrainian economy grew 0.5% in the annual terms. This has been confirmed by NBU inflationary report data for April.
It is noted that an important factor in economic growth has become a predominantly stable power supply. Thus, in the 1st quarter, the lack of E/E is less than expected, thanks to hot weather and fast repair capabilities and infrastructure.
In addition, the additional adaptation of businesses to exchange energy supply, in particular, the development of the shared generation and the installation of Energy -Voltage Equipment equipment, as well as Emorde of E/E, such as evidence of the results of business surveys, has also made a significant contribution.
However, in the report they added that GDP growth by 2025 will remain restrained. This will prevent the consequences of the war, especially the lack of labor market, including due to maintaining a negative balance of transplantation, strengthening the flow and destruction of gas infrastructure, which will increase the hope of imports, as well as the negative effects of worldwide trade confrontation. The last two factors led to a deterioration in GDP’s true growth in 2025 to 3.1% (compared to 3.6% in the Inflation report in January 2025).
At the same time, a certain support for the economy will provide anticipated yield growth, stabilizing energy and defense orders.
In 2026-2027, the National Bank expects to accelerate the growth rate by 3.7-3.9%, but indicates that the period of rapid recovery ends.
Without major investment or return of migrants, a breakthrough in the economy is called “not likely” in the near future.
Earlier, the National Bank of Ukraine exacerbated the predicted indicators for GDP and inflation.
Remember that the NBU left the accounting rate at a level of 15.5% per year. At the same time, the regulator ensures that if the risks are strengthened, it will hold the account at the current level longer than provided by the updated macrogenosis, and will be ready to take further steps.
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Source: korrespondent
I’m Liza Grey, an experienced news writer and author at the Buna Times. I specialize in writing about economic issues, with a focus on uncovering stories that have a positive impact on society. With over seven years of experience in the news industry, I am highly knowledgeable about current events and the ways in which they affect our daily lives.