The regulator forecast involves maintaining a discount rate at a level of 15.5% in the next few months.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) maintains a discount rate at 15.5% each year. It was reported on the regulator website on Thursday, March 6.
“This decision will contribute to maintaining the stability of the foreign exchange market, maintaining control over inflationary expectations and a gradual slowdown in inflation up to the target of 5% in politics. Due to significant levels of uncertainty, which in recent months has only increased, the NBU has responded to changes in the balance of risk for risk for rising prices and expected inflation price risks,” of the statement.
At the same time, the NBU’s forecast involves handling the discount rate at 15.5% in the next few months and returned to the ease cycle of interest policy after the climax of a price attack and reducing the risk of incorporating inflation to a level of two -grass.
The regulator also confirmed that if this risk was strengthened, he would hold the accounting rate at the current level longer than the updated MacRO -Drift, and would be ready to take additional steps.
The National Bank also predicts this year’s fourth quarter of the average discount rate at a level of 14% per year, while in January it is estimated at a level of 13.1% per year.
As stated in the updated rate dynamics schedule, its forecast for the third quarter of this year also increased 0.9 percent points – up to 15.4% from 14.5% in January version.
Currently, the National Bank expects a decrease in the average account in the first quarter of next year to 13%, in the second – up to 12.5%, by the end of 2026 to 11.6%per year.
Earlier, the NBU increased the discount rate three times in a row. The last increase of this was in March. Prior to this, the National Bank held it for six months to 13%, where it was reduced from 25% from July 2023 to seven stages.
The discount rate is equal to the cost of money to the economy. At this rate, the NBU provides funding to commercial banks, and they, the individual credits and legal creatures. Thus, the discount rate affects the cost of credit resources. An increase in discount rates indicates an increase in inflation levels and decline in economic growth rate in the country.
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Source: korrespondent
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