The regulator checks as a low probability of a rapid implementation of a large -scale Ukraine restoration plan (less than 15%). This is the possibility of rapid restoration of damaged infrastructure and accelerating European integration processes.
NBU will consider the rapid completion of active hosses in Ukraine that are unlikely and estimated to be less than 15%. At the same time, there are high risks of increasing military operations, further deterioration of production capacities. This is stated in the NBU inflationary report.
The National Bank In the first instance appreciates the possibility of an early completion of active hosses.
NBU does not provide forecasts for the duration of the war, but evaluates the risks for the economy.
Thus, the regulator as a low probability of a rapid implementation of a large -scale Ukraine restoration plan (less than 15%). The possibility of rapid restoration of damaged infrastructure and accelerating European integration processes is the same.
“Military risks for Ukraine are maintained against the rear of geopolitical intensification of the world. At the same time, there is a possibility of international community efforts aimed at achieving agreements about a fair and long -world world In Ukraine is implemented in a close perspective, “the report said.
At the same time, the likelihood of the following processes is estimated:
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Strengthening the geopolitical polarization of the countries and, accordingly, the breakdown of world trade,
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Increasing hate, further degradation of production capabilities,
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A larger e/e deficiency due to further damage to energy infrastructure,
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The emergence of additional budget needs.
Earlier, the analysts recognized four realistic options for the end of the Russian War against Ukraine, along with the denial of the unlikely, such as Putin’s sudden death or an unexpected collapse of the Ukrainian counterattack.
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Source: korrespondent
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