The main reasons for the change in the NBU forecast are the high flexibility of business and the population in military conditions, as well as harvest records.
For the third time this year, the National Bank significantly improved the macroeconomic forecast for Ukraine. The economy is expected to grow by 4.9% and inflation to decrease to 5.8%, according to the regulator’s website on Thursday, October 26.
In particular, the forecast for real GDP growth this year was raised from 2.9 to 4.9%. This is influenced by many factors, including:
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high adaptability of business and population to military conditions;
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high yield;
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expanding alternative export routes;
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larger amounts of budget expenditures.
In 2024, the growth forecast was raised slightly – from 3.5 to 3.6%, despite high security risks. And for 2025, GDP growth is expected to be 6%.
The National Bank improved its inflation forecast in 2023 from 10.6% to 5.8%. The main factor in this forecast change is the impact of high yields on the dynamics of food prices. At the same time, the regulator raised the inflation forecast for 2024 – from 8.5 to 9.8%.
“The acceleration of price growth next year will be driven by a low basis of comparison for the cost of food products, long-term pressure on business spending through the revision of assumptions regarding security risks, rising wages and accelerated growth of administratively controlled prices,” the report said.
However, in the future, inflation will decrease to 6% in 2025. This will mainly be facilitated by the expected reduction in security risks, which the NBU forecast allows.
Let us remind you that today the National Bank announced a sharp reduction in the discount rate – to 16% from 20%. At the same time, the regulator allows for the possibility of further reductions.
And earlier, the Ministry of Economy announced the growth of the Ukrainian economy by 9.1% in September.
Source: korrespondent
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