The country’s economy started 2023 negatively, what to expect now?

This year 2023, the Peruvian economy started negatively due to social conflicts and termination of activities caused by this situation.

The National Institute for Statistics and Informatics (INEI) reported that national production fell 1.12% in January, the first decline in 22 months. But Phase Advisors economist Juan Carlos Odar notes that we have already experienced more than three consecutive months of slowdowns.

“Production already started to fall in October. economy It cools down towards the end of last year, and with the data for December and January, the figures are already starting to turn negative (…) The biggest impact on the topic of social conflicts occurred in January, and there may be a certain rebound in the following data, but this certain rebound may influence the impact of climatic anomalies,” he explained.

For a specialist in this situation, we would be close to a technical recession, six consecutive months of economic recession in the first half of the year.

Taking into account that economic risks they continue to be added, forecasts for the next months are not the most optimistic. Former Economy Minister Alfredo Thorn commented on how these months have progressed.

“The first quarter of this year will clearly be negative. In the leading indicators, we see that there was a slight recovery in February, but in March with the effects of rain and paralysis, especially in the north and in Lima. , it will put you in negative territory,” he argues.

With that in mind, Thorne adds that the first half of the year will be “quite weak” and the second half will be more positive.

Most affected

For now sectors Construction, telecommunications, finance and mining started the year negatively, but which regions were hit the hardest?

Victor Fuentes, chief economist at the Peruvian Institute of Economics, notes that there are four regions that are facing recession even this year.

“Regions under economic stress Cusco, Puno, Madre de Dios and Apurimac. In three of them, we see strong impacts associated with the development of the tourism sector. Whether they are in recession or not, there is a clear economic decline in these regions,” he explained.

This year, the Ministry of Economy predicts growth of about 3.1%, and the Central Reserve Bank (CRB) predicts growth of 3%, but these forecasts may not come true.

According to BCR President Julio Velarde, economic growth this 2023 is likely not to be as good as expected, and given the economic results that have been obtained so far, this is confirmed.