If the conflict in Ukraine remains limited to the current territory, then the real volume of production will stabilize at the level of 70% in 2021, analysts say.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development significantly worsened the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2023 – from 8%, which was expected in September 2022, to only 1%. This is stated in the new EBRD Regional Economic Prospects report, published on Thursday, February 16.
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According to EBRD analysts, in 2023, assuming that the conflict in Ukraine remains limited to the current territory, which produced less than 20% of GDP before the war, it is likely that real output will stabilize at approx. 70% of the 2021 level of the year.
At the same time, Ukraine’s economy will continue to be highly dependent on wartime considerations.
“Unless there are significant strategic changes on the ground, Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2024 is likely to be sluggish, but at least positive,” added the EDB, which predicts that Ukraine’s economy will grow by 3% in 2024 .
Overall, the EBRD lowered its GDP growth forecast for the markets of Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia and northern Africa for 2023 to 2.1% from the 3% expected in September of last year. In 2024, the economic growth rate should accelerate to 3.3%.
Earlier, the Ukrainian National Bank sharply downgraded its forecast for GDP growth in 2023 to 0.3% from 4% in the previous forecast. This is largely due to the extension of the base scenario with full-scale war for another six months – until the beginning of 2024.
As you know, in 2022, the GDP of Ukraine will sink by almost a third. This is the biggest drop in history, but better than expected.
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Source: korrespondent
I’m Liza Grey, an experienced news writer and author at the Buna Times. I specialize in writing about economic issues, with a focus on uncovering stories that have a positive impact on society. With over seven years of experience in the news industry, I am highly knowledgeable about current events and the ways in which they affect our daily lives.