USA: Five Reasons Election Results Matter

As the results of the US midterm elections become known, it becomes clear that the Republican “red wave” that many experts expected has not materialized. Preliminary data indicate that the Republicans are likely to regain the House of Representatives, but less than expected, while the US Senate remains in doubt. While it may be more of a ripple than a wave, Washington appears to continue to prepare for a government split.

In the US Congress, the Republicans will focus on maintaining a united front against the Democrats and on trying to keep President Joe Biden for just one term. Political and legislative stalemate is likely to be Washington’s watchword for the next two years.

While Biden may have some power to nominate federal and possibly even Supreme Court judges if Democrats retain control of the Senate, other key White House priorities, including the environment, health care and reproductive rights, will come to a standstill. Here are five other key points:

1. Cost reduction

If there’s one particular area where House Republicans will use their renewed influence, it’s in the area of ​​public spending. Federal spending, which has skyrocketed under the Biden administration, is likely to be scrutinized.

Republican leaders will try to force Democrats to reform Social Security and Medicare in exchange for permission to raise the debt ceiling, the US Treasury Department’s borrowing limit that keeps the federal government running.

The scope and extent of spending cuts will largely depend on the ability of Republicans to stick together. Welfare reform is known as “the third rail of American policy” due to the fact that it can harm government officials who seek to deprive Americans of economic benefits. While fiscal hawks such as Republican Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, co-founder of the Freedom Caucus, have expressed interest in cutting spending as much as possible, populists in the party appear to be more cautious.

2. Promote research

Most action, however, the Capitol will see in a series of new investigations into the executive branch that Republicans have been eager to scratch since Biden took office. Kind of like revenge for both of us impeachments Trump and partly out of anger at the White House agenda, Republicans will take every opportunity to corner Biden, including over Covid-19, Hunter Biden’s laptop, accusations from the politically motivated Department of Justice, and pulling out of Afghanistan.

Some hardline Republicans in the House of Representatives have even put forward the idea of ​​Biden’s impeachment, but such a possibility seems unlikely. Trump supporters like Marjorie Taylor Green, a Georgia Republican congresswoman, will continue to press for any measure that creates a self-serving political spectacle.

However, the more mainstream Republicans understand that this road is littered with potholes. The risk is that relevant issues, such as inflation, will be seen as ignored while the partisan vendetta against Biden is carried out.

3. Attitude towards China and Ukraine

Internationally, the midterm elections are likely to have a limited impact on specific policy change. Many US allies fear that if the Republicans take control of Congress, they will harden their stance and jeopardize US commitments abroad.

In particular, there have been speculations that support for Ukraine could be withdrawn after House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said last month that the Republican Congress would not be willing to issue carte blanche for military action.

However, a radical withdrawal from Kyiv is unlikely even in the midst of a conflict with no end in sight. Despite the isolationist wing in the Republican Party, there is broad support in Washington for the military defense of Ukraine. This is in line with public opinion opposed to Putin’s war, as roughly three-quarters of Americans agree that the US should continue to provide financial and military assistance to Kyiv.

Similarly, China’s foreign policy is an area where Republicans and Democrats converge. Biden has distanced himself from Trump’s rhetoric on Beijing but continues to defend his predecessor’s stance on waging a “low-intensity economic war.”

4. Implications for American Democracy

While the midterm elections are important in their own right — and shouldn’t be seen as just a warm-up for 2024 — there’s a reason all the attention will now be on the upcoming presidential election. Democrats interpreted the midterms not only as a vote on politics, but as a referendum on the future of American democracy itself.

With more than 300 right-wing candidates claiming that Biden’s 2020 victory was rigged, many fear it could set the stage for an even more tumultuous 2024 election than the country experienced in 2020.

The data, however, indicate that Americans are putting pressure on many highly negative voters, especially at the state level. Voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan have rejected Trump-backed gubernatorial candidates who would have significant influence in confirming electoral votes.

5. Trump’s future role

Meanwhile, Trump’s power in the party may be increasingly challenged by his challenger Ron DeSantis, who won the Florida gubernatorial race by double-digit margins, flipping counties where he Democrats won by a landslide and winning the majority of the Hispanic/Latino vote. . While the results of Trump-backed candidates have been mixed, it is clear that Trump’s blessing was not a reliable guarantee of victory and that the quality of a candidate remains important.

All this is not done to ensure that the election results are not threatened either in this cycle or in 2024. The scourge of voter denial has escalated into something more than Trump or his most ardent allies, an all-out movement that can be hard to contain. However, the apparent rejection of the most extreme candidates suggests that many Americans – from both parties – want to restore stability, especially in the central institution in free and fair elections.

Thomas Gift, Associate Professor and Director, Center for US Policy, UCL, and Julie M. Norman, Associate Professor, Department of Politics and International Relations, UCL

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original.