Putin will take advantage of any lull in the fighting to consolidate his gains and prepare for future aggression against Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will continue to seek to occupy all of Ukraine, even if there is a ceasefire or other agreement. Therefore, Ukraine must restore certain areas to ensure long-term security and economic viability. This is stated in the material of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) following the results of Sunday, October 16.
ISW analysts believe that Putin will take advantage of any pause in the fighting to consolidate his gains and freeze the front line in the best configuration he can get to prepare for future aggression against Ukraine.
“Ukraine must resist the temptation to freeze the battle lines in a way that does not allow conditions to be created for the continuation of the conflict on Russia’s terms,” the analysts said.
It was noted that if Ukraine were to regain control of the entire west bank of the Dnieper River, the Russians would likely find ground attacks in the southwest very difficult. Thus, the long-term defense capabilities of Nikolaev, Odessa and the entire Ukrainian Black Sea coast depend to a large extent on the liberation of western Kherson.
The Dnieper River should not be the first line of defense for Ukraine, but the last. Contested river crossings are very difficult, but they are made easier if the attacker can make all the preparations on the river itself, including setting up defended artillery positions, pre-positioning bridge equipment, stockpiling necessary supplies, and generally setting up all the infrastructure. required for crossing.
Considering the main areas in the eastern part of Kherson and the western part of Zaporozhye oblasts, security and economic issues should be considered due to the location of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Energodar. The station provided a large portion of Ukraine’s electricity before the 2022 invasion, and its loss would require significant investment to replace generating capacity and possibly redesign elements of the Ukrainian electricity grid.
Thus, the release of Energodar is critical to containing the time and money spent on rebuilding the Ukrainian economy.
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The restoration of a viable Ukrainian economy that does not require large amounts of long-term international financial assistance requires the return of the Donbass economic region under Kyiv’s control.
The military’s demands for this recovery include Ukraine’s liberation of Mariupol and road and rail networks north through Volnovakha to Donetsk and west to Melitopol and Zaporozhye. In order to establish reliable Ukrainian control over Mariupol, it is necessary to release at least part of the lands seized in 2014. The line of control resulting from this invasion is too close to the city to allow its defenders to escape the siege in the face of certain attacks.
Similar economic arguments hold true for the historic industrial cities of Donetsk, Severodonetsk, and Luhansk. In other regions of occupied northeastern Ukraine, the balance of the economy is shifting mainly to the agricultural sector.
However, there are several strategically important territories in northeastern Ukraine. The cities of Svatovo, Starobelsk and Belovodsk are located at major road junctions, where control in part determines which bases in Russia itself can be used by the invaders to directly support future attacks on Ukraine.
The Crimean peninsula, finally, is strategically important for both NATO and Ukraine. Russia’s occupation of the peninsula allows it to deploy anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles 325 kilometers to the west.
This allows Russia to deploy aviation in Sevastopol about 300 kilometers to the west than air bases on the territory of the Russian Federation. These differences have significant implications for the size and scope of the air and missile threat that Russia can pose to NATO’s southeastern flank, as well as for Russia’s ability to prepare for and support future invasions of Ukraine.
ISW also notes that some Russian sources have reported continued Ukrainian attacks in the direction of Kherson, and that Ukrainian sources have reported more than the usual daily shelling and shelling. -rocket attack, but Ukrainian forces remain silent on the operation.
Ukrainian military officials are reported to have said that Russian forces are falsely claiming that they have captured several towns near Bakhmut in the past few days, Ukrainian forces are holding their positions from the Russian attack. Russian forces are likely falsifying claims of an offensive in the Bakhmut region to demonstrate their gains in at least one sector against the backdrop of ongoing losses in northeastern and southern Ukraine.
Earlier, the General Staff reported that the occupiers had begun evacuating “state institutions” from Kherson.
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Source: korrespondent
I am David Wyatt, a professional writer and journalist for Buna Times. I specialize in the world section of news coverage, where I bring to light stories and issues that affect us globally. As a graduate of Journalism, I have always had the passion to spread knowledge through writing.