The war in Ukraine changed the security situation in Europe. Today, Finland and Sweden are seriously thinking about the prospect of NATO membership. Russia has criticized plans to expand the alliance.
If Finland joins NATO, the length of the common border of alliance member countries with Russia, which is now seen in the West as a hostile force, will be doubled – up to 2,600 km. On the one hand, in this situation, NATO will significantly increase the flank that needs to be protected. On the other hand, a well-trained and well-equipped Finnish army would be an advantage for the alliance.
“Finland still has conscription. Finland can mobilize an army of 280,000 soldiers. For Europe today, that’s a pretty large army,” said Jakob Vestberg, a professor at Swedish Defense University in Stockholm.
If Sweden, which has no direct border with Russia, joins the alliance, it will be easier for NATO to conduct operations in the Baltic Sea. After all, in this case, all countries with access to the Baltic Sea, except Russia, will become members of the alliance. Sweden’s entry into NATO will mean the transfer of the territory of the island of Gotland under the control of alliance, from which it is possible to defend most of the Baltic Sea, as well as the Baltic countries. “It will be more difficult for Russia to operate in the Baltic Sea. After all, Sweden has five very modern submarines that can complement the fleets of Poland and Germany,” military expert Jakob Vestberg said in a interview with DW.
The Swedish Air Force has more than 100 modern fighters. However, in recent decades, Sweden’s ground forces have been significantly reduced, as in many NATO countries. Jakob Westberg believes it will take ten years to change this situation.
From an organizational perspective, accepting new members into NATO is not a problem
From a military perspective, Finland and Sweden are almost ready to join the alliance immediately, according to NATO headquarters in Brussels. The armies of these countries have been cooperating with NATO troops for many years. Finnish and Swedish soldiers participated in the NATO -led mission in Afghanistan. Since 2015, Finland and Sweden have been working closely with the US on equipment and training.
In addition, Finland and Sweden agreed NATO in joint defense planning and creating a joint naval battle group. “However, there are no promises of mutual assistance,” Swedish military expert Westberg emphasizes. This situation will change if these countries join NATO. Most likely, Finland and Sweden will also participate in NATO combat groups for the defense of the Baltic countries. Meanwhile, the question remains open whether to deploy NATO troops in Finland and Sweden.
Most Finns are in favor of joining NATO
Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin clarified within weeks that she was on course for NATO membership. Finland’s parliament will soon discuss the country’s defense plan, which was updated after Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The decision on Finland’s entry into the alliance must be made before mid-summer, especially at the end of June.
For the former head of the Finnish government, Alexander Stubb, the decision has already been made. In fact, according to the latest polls, 62 percent of Finns are in favor of abandoning the current status of “active neutrality” in favor of allied obligations.
“Our population is now driven, it seems to me, by a fair fear: whether Putin can cut off his sisters and brothers. in Ukrainewhy can’t he do the same in Finland? ”Stubb said in an interview with DW. The dominant feeling among Finns today is that they don’t want to be left alone again with the threat, Stubb stressed, referring to the war against in the Soviet Union in 1939-1940, when Finland lost about nine percent of its territory.
Sweden is examining the security situation
The Swedish position is somewhat more hopeful. The head of the Swedish government, Magdalena Andersson, after meeting with her Finnish counterpart, said that Stockholm would quickly and comprehensively analyze the new security situation.
“In Sweden, we believe that for 200 years, since the time of Napoleon, we have had peace because we have always rejected military alliances,” explains defense expert Jakob Westberg. The self-perception about effective neutrality is now under threat, he added: “Now we need to look at the security situation in a completely different way. War against Ukraine became a turning point. “
To approve NATO membership, Sweden’s leading Social Democratic Party had to change its original position on this issue. Elections will be held in the fall in this country. When a decision to give up can be made is not yet entirely clear.
NATO does not think about accepting new members
At the recent NATO Extraordinary Summit in Brussels, Swedish and Finnish government leaders asked Alliance Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg what NATO would say about possible membership applications. In this regard, Stoltenberg did not hide that he supported the idea of Sweden and Finland joining the alliance.
Both countries, as Western democracies and longtime partners in cooperation with NATO, do not require a lengthy membership process that can take several years from invitation to actual entry into the club. The current 30 NATO member countries need to unite to approve Sweden and Finland’s applications for membership. So far, no government has openly opposed it. Invitations to start accession talks could come as early as the next NATO summit in Madrid, scheduled for late June.
Russia opposes the new expansion of NATO
As expected, the Russian leadership is strictly critical of the possible expansion of NATO. “By itself, the alliance is rather a sharpened tool for conversion, it is not an alliance that ensures peace and stability. Further expansion will not bring further calm to the continent of Europe,” the spokesman said. Russian president Dmitry Peskov on April 11.
On April 14, Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote in the Telegram that if Finland and Sweden were to join NATO, Moscow would have to “seriously strengthen the grouping of ground forces and air defense, mag deploy a large naval force in the Gulf of Finland. ”“ In this case, there is no talk of any non-nuclear status of the Baltic-the balance must be restored, ”he added.
For her part, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on April 15 that Sweden and Finland’s entry into NATO would lead to negative consequences for peace in northern Europe and the continent’s security architecture, as well as affect relations with Russia.
With Finland joining the alliance, NATO will once again approach Russia’s borders. Then the alliance border is only 200 kilometers from St. Petersburg.
Source: korrespondent
