Brazil elections: Lula da Silva maintains 12-point lead over Jair Bolsonaro in new poll

New poll more than 1 month before the election. Former President of Brazil Luis Inacio Lula da Silva remains the top favorite to win the Oct. 2 presidential election in Brazil with a 12 percentage point lead that hasn’t changed in the past two weeks over the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro.

According to a poll released on Tuesday by the Ipec Institute, the left-wing presidential candidate labor party (PT) recorded 44% voting intent in a poll last week, the same percentage measured in a similar poll conducted in mid-August.

Bolsonarofar-right leader who seeks re-election Liberal Party (PL) received 32% favoritism in a poll conducted Friday-Sunday last week, exactly the same percentage as in a poll published on July 15th.

The difference between the two candidates remained stable, even though the new poll polled voters after the official start of the election campaigns, the distribution of the first commercials on radio and television, and the airing of interviews of all candidates in the mainstream media. outlets in the country.

Panorama at the gates of elections

Even though an Ipec poll showed that the difference between the two favorites and being the protagonists of one of the most polarized elections in history has not changed. Brazil over the past two weeks, other applicants have registered a slight increase.

Labor’s intention to vote Cyrus Gomezthe third most voted candidate in the last two presidential elections, who is running for Brazilian Labor Party (PDT), rose from 6% in mid-August to 7% at the end of this month.

And the senator Simone Tebbetcentrist candidate Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) and which presents itself as a candidate for a center that wants to end the current polarization in Brazilrose from 2% in the previous survey to 3% in the survey over the past few days.

Businessman Philip D’Avila, The Novo party candidate, who promotes an economic model with a decidedly liberal undertone, finds himself in fifth place with 1% intent to vote in the new poll after failing two weeks ago.

Survey data

according to eIpekan increase in the intention to vote for other candidates prevents Lula from being elected president on October 2 without the need for a second round, which would require him to win more votes than all other candidates combined (more than half of the valid votes).

The Socialist leader and former union leader now has 44% of the intention to vote, practically the same as all his rivals combined, according to a new poll, which will force Brazilians to elect their president in a runoff appointed to him. October 30.

A new study shows that the benefits Lula it was about Bolsonaro it was eventually reduced in the second round over the last two weeks.

According to Ipec, the intention to vote for the former president (2003-2010) in a possible second round fell from 51% in mid-August to 50% at the end of this month, while for the incumbent rose from 35%. up to 37%. In other words, the distance that separated them decreased from 16 to 13 points in two weeks.

It’s a boss recovery Condition happened along with a slight improvement in his approval Government.

According to ipekpercentage of Brazilians who approve of management Bolsonaro increased from 29% in mid-August to 31% at the end of the month, fair estimates fell from 26% to 24%, and unsatisfactory remained at 43%.

For the Ipec study, they were interviewed 2000 people between 26 and 28 August in 128 municipalities. Your margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points, and the confidence level is 95%.

The Ipec survey reflects almost the same results as other sociological companies. According to the latest company survey datafoliaadvantage Lula (47%) about Bolsonaro (32%) is 15 percentage points.

(EFE)