Save Putin’s face. Why did Erdogan come?

The Turkish leader has thus far been able to play an effective multi-vector geopolitical game.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Ukraine for talks with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky with the participation of UN Secretary General António Guterres. At the meeting, taking place in Lvov, Zelensky will be offered “diplomatic means” to end the war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine. The West is wary of Erdogan, who has been a key mediator for Moscow, experts say. Correspondent.net telling the details.

Why Erdogan and Guterres went to Zelensky

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Lviv on August 18 for a one-day visit. According to Turkish media, Erdogan will offer Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky to arrange a meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

“It is expected that Erdogan will offer Zelensky to arrange his meeting with Putin,” said a correspondent for A Haber TV channel from Lvov, citing sources in diplomatic circles.

Another Turkish news channel, CNN Turk, added that Putin is ready to meet with Zelensky to determine a road map.

“According to the news we received from Russian sources, the leaders can discuss and define a road map. Then the delegations can start working on bringing this road map to life,” said message.

The Turkish television channel NTV, citing government sources, reports that the Turkish president may initiate a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine and offer Ankara to mediate in the exchange of prisoners.

The day before, Erdogan’s meeting with Zelensky was announced, Ankara said that the summit will consider potential measures aimed at more actively maintaining a mechanism for exporting Ukrainian grain to world markets and ending of war through diplomacy.

They also specified that Erdogan and Zelensky will hold a bilateral meeting, where they will “discuss all aspects of relations” between Ukraine and Turkey, and then an expanded summit will be held with the participation of UN Secretary General António Guterres .

In addition to grain and the end of the war, Guterres will also discuss with Zelensky the situation around the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, where Russian invaders have been struck for the second week in a row, creating the threat of a nuclear disaster that bigger than Chernobyl.

On the eve of the negotiations, Zelensky said that he does not exclude the possibility of negotiations with Russia, even through mediators, as long as the Russian Federation intends to continue the war. In his opinion, it is impossible to conduct negotiations due to the fact that the Kremlin does not want to end the war against Ukraine.

“Therefore, to have or seek mediators between a nation that defends its land and a nation that has decided to completely destroy it… They are not human beings. What mediators can there be between humans and the animal? You will not find mediators , because Russia does not want to end this war,” – said the Ukrainian president.

Putin needs negotiations, but there are no conditions for them

Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko urges not to expect “any sensation” from the negotiations, because at the moment there are no requirements for them.

“Now, and for the foreseeable future, the very possibility of some kind of peace agreement between the Russian Federation and Ukraine seems almost utopia. -occupy the occupied territories, and the Russian Federation, on the contrary, to unite the their work) and it is impossible even in theory to combine them,” he wrote on his Facebook page.

According to the expert, the maximum possible is an agreement on a temporary ceasefire. “And then only under certain conditions and not in the near future,” believes Fesenko.

He noted that Erdogan and Guterres are inspired by the success of the grain deal, so they will try to build on the relative success of this negotiation. However, it is not yet time to talk about some kind of “pressure” of the Turkish autocrat on Zelensky.

Ukraine can checkmate. Media about explosions in Crimea

“The President of Turkey, most likely, will tell Putin’s proposals to Zelensky, he can offer some compromise options with Guterres. For now, it will be only a sound of the very possibility of continuing peace negotiations in the future,” Fesenko stressed.

Military expert Dmitry Snegirev explains why Putin needs negotiations. According to him, Putin understands that the second stage of the “special operation” has failed – only half of the territory of the Donetsk region is controlled by the Russian invaders. Therefore, the expert is sure that because of the failures on the battlefield, he is trying to find mediators to “save face.”

“Look at the events at the front on the eve of Erdogan’s visit – a sharp increase in the military activity of the occupiers in all areas. This has not happened for a long time … The political future of Putin himself is -discussed. The date of the so-called referendum on the occupied territories has already been postponed. In fact, Russia announced the inability to conduct a pseudo-referendum. A political collapse, “he told TSN.

How many seats does Erdogan sit on?

Turkey, which has tacitly supported the Kremlin’s actions in Ukraine, has become a key actor on the diplomatic front in Russia’s war against the Ukrainians.

So, he started a spring meeting of negotiators from Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul. Under the auspices of Ankara, an agreement was reached on the export of grain from Ukraine. It was signed in Istanbul – separate from Ukraine and Russia. The UN and Turkey acted as guarantors. The next day, Moscow violated the agreement by launching a missile attack on the port of Odessa.

At the same time, according to Bloomberg, it was Turkey that not only did not impose sanctions, but also became the country that did not allow the Russian economy to collapse under the pressure of Western sanctions imposed since the beginning of the entire invasion of Russia. of Ukraine. At the same time, Turkey provides weapons to Ukraine and limits the influence of the Russian Federation in the Caucasus and Syria.

It is clear that Erdogan is trying to find political and economic benefits for himself in any situation.

Western commentators see what they call Ankara’s balancing act between Russia and the West. They pay attention to the fact that Erdogan is preparing for elections next year, and it is very important for him to show his voters as an international figure and an effective economic leader.

“Erdogan is playing a dangerous double game, and whether he can sustain it remains to be seen. His priority is to secure re-election next year amid an economic crisis that is damaging his popularity. He will all to strengthen his position in his home country.Amanda Pohl, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy in Brussels, tweeted.

Putin wants to build Bayraktar. Why Erdogan

Former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder wrote in Politico that Turkey is clearly a very strategically important NATO ally, but he also noted that over the years Ankara has not always proven to be a reliable ally.

“Erdogan is by no means the only NATO leader who maintains close ties with Putin. Just think of former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi or Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban,” Daalder said.

But the former diplomat recalled that Erdogan was the only NATO leader to buy the latest anti-aircraft missiles from Russia instead of acquiring Western equipment that could be integrated into NATO’s defense system.

“He is also the only NATO leader, though not the first Turkish leader to threaten to use force against an ally, Greece. In other words, Turkey is increasingly difficult to deal with as an ally, but almost impossible to do without ,” concluded Daalder.

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