Financial ratings agency S&P on Friday downgraded Ukraine’s long-term debt rating by three notches to CC, saying a recent agreement by several Western countries to spread its payments was setting it up for default.almost certainly“. “Ukraine has asked its foreign creditors to postpone the payment of all foreign debt for 24 months”.S&P said in a statement.
“Following this request, we believe that a default on foreign currency sovereign debt is a virtual certainty.“, the rating agency notes. Ukraine’s long-term foreign exchange rating has been sharply downgraded by three notches from CCC+ to CC. A group of Western creditors, including France, the US, Germany, Japan and Britain, agreed on July 20 to delay interest payments on Ukraine’s debt after a request from Kiev, urging other Ukrainian bondholders to do the same.
“Debt restructuring program”
S&P’s rating has been given a negative outlook, reflecting the agency’s view.”that Ukraine is likely to implement its debt restructuring plans“which will be considered”as a drawback,” adds S&P. The agency also highlightshigh risks for Ukraine’s commercial debt service payments, given the government’s debt restructuring plans stemming from the economic, balance of payments and budgetary pressures of the war with Russia.“.
In a pessimistic scenario, the rating may drop even further and become “SD“, it is “Optional default“(“partial defect“), last rank before default (“D:“). It could happen”if Ukraine undertakes what we consider to be a disorderly debt restructuring, or if the government is unable to make payments on its foreign currency obligations;“, the agency elaborates. In an optimistic scenario, however, an increase in rating can be considered.if Ukraine’s medium-term security environment and macroeconomic prospects improve“.
Suspension of debt service
The agreement signed by a group of Western creditors on July 20 provides for the suspension of Ukraine’s debt service from August 1 and at least until the end of 2023.with the option of an additional year“.
Ukraine’s economy has collapsed since the start of the war and could see GDP fall by 45% this year, according to World Bank estimates released in June. In this context of an exceptional crisis, Kiev had asked its creditors to delay payments, stating that it wanted to prioritize “foreign exchange resources for priority war-related expenditures“. According to the calculations of the Bloomberg agency, measures aimed at delaying the payment of its obligations by Ukraine could save it at least 3 billion dollars over two years.
S&P had already downgraded Ukraine on May 27 and also issued a negative outlook due to “The larger implications of Russia’s military attack“, and explained that it should be expected”that the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict continues“. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24.
Source: Le Figaro
